February 26th, 2019
This week’s list includes a number of releases that are worth picking up, mostly of the smaller variety. There’s a foreign-language import, Border; a mostly forgotten comedy from the 1980s, Used Cars; a good movie that is busted Oscar-bait, Mary Queen of Scots; and an Anime slice of life, Love Live! Sunshine!!: Season Two. However, for most people, it’s the two biggest releases that are also the best: The Little Mermaid and Ralph Breaks the Internet. For me, Ralph Breaks the Internet on Blu-ray or 4K Ultra HD is the clear Pick of the Week.
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February 11th, 2019
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The BAFTA winners were announced and The Favorite led the way with 7 wins. Like I mentioned before, understandably, the BAFTAs tend to favor British films and this can lessen their ability to predict Oscar winners and The Favorite is such a British Film that they managed to spell the word correctly. That doesn’t mean there are no lessons we can learn from these results.
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February 7th, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and there is a Pixar film on this list. However, in a shocking twist, it isn’t the overwhelming favorite to win.
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January 27th, 2019
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Glass bounced back after a weak Friday earning an estimated $19.05 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $73.59 million. This is even better than our original prediction. It’s practically guaranteed to get to $100 million domestically, while it is doing a little better internationally. This weekend it pulled in $23.6 million for a two-week total of $89.1 million. The film has yet to open in China and when it does, it will get past $250 million worldwide.
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January 3rd, 2019
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Aquaman remained the top draw on the international market with $88.4 million on 23,360 screens in 78 markets for totals of $562.4 million internationally and $751.4 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Australia where it opened with $7.94 million on 632 screens over the weekend for a total opening $11.04 million. Its biggest market overall is China where it added $11.45 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $261.28 million after four weeks of release. It overtook Suicide Squad for third place in the D.C.E.U. and it is not done yet.
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December 30th, 2018
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It has been an even more predictable weekend than expected, as every film in the top five finished in the same order as last weekend. This includes Aquaman topping the chart with an estimated $51.55 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $188.79 million. It will cross $200 million shortly and overtake A Star is Born as Warner Bros.’ biggest domestic hit of the year. Internationally, the film added $85.4 million this weekend to push its global running tally to just shy of $750 million at $748.8 million. It is already ahead of Man of Steel and Suicide Squad on the DCEU chart and should soon step into first place.
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December 29th, 2018
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The Friday box office estimates are almost exactly as predicted, with most films out-pacing expectations by a small amount. At least as far as the top five is concerned. The lower films struggled more. For example, Aquaman led the way with $17.1 million putting it on pace for $52 million over the weekend. The film will become Warner Bros.’ second film released in 2018 to get to the $200 million mark (A Star is Born quietly got there before Christmas.) but it might have to wait till the new year to get there. Internationally, the film has already cracked $500 million with a running tally of $511.8 million as of the end of business on Friday.
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December 28th, 2018
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It’s the weekend after Christmas and as is the holiday tradition, there are no new releases this week. I guess you could technically call Holmes and Watson and Vice new releases, but they’ve been out since Tuesday. This means there won’t be much new news to talk about. Aquaman will dominate, while Mary Poppins Returns will bounce back, as will most other family fair. I think the same five films that appeared in the top five last weekend will appear in the top five this weekend. Holmes and Watson might not collapse and could grab a spot in the top five, but I personally wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi barely stayed ahead of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, as both films earned more than $50 million. Aquaman has close to a 50/50 chance of earning $50 million, but the rest of the films will be well back resulting in 2018 ending on a losing note. That said, it should be relatively close and 2018 has already topped last year’s final box office by a significant margin.
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December 27th, 2018
Aquaman had another significant expansion helping it keep first place with $95.2 million on 31,900 screens in 70 markets for totals of $415.5 million internationally and, including updated Domestic tallies, the global take is $488.2 million worldwide. It is ahead of every other film in the D.C.E.U. on the international chart, which is impressive. Its biggest new market was South Korea, where it earned first place with $7.94 million on 1,272 screens for a total opening of $10.08 million. It also opened in first place in France with $6.6 million on 607 screens, as well as in Germany with $4.9 million 805. The film’s biggest market overall was China, where it slipped to second with $23.41 million on 12,000 screens for a three-week total of $233.59 million.
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December 27th, 2018
The Christmas holiday is over for most people, although it is not entirely over for some studios. This is making getting all of the box office details much harder to do. In fact, we are still limited to estimated for more than half the top five this weekend. We have enough details now to look at the weekend results and the Christmas Day releases and see which are thriving and which are not. Aquaman dominated the charts with just over $100 million so far, including its paid previews. On the other hand, Mary Poppins Returns missed expectations by a substantial margin. It will still break even. The same can be said of Bumblebee, which could usher in a new era of Transformers movies. Overall, the box office rose by 53% from last weekend to $177 million. This is just 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year; however, last year, Christmas Eve fell on a Sunday and Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office. We can’t even compare Christmas Day, because landing on a Monday vs. a Tuesday is a huge difference. Next weekend’s comparison will be much easier to make. Year-to-date, and this is up to Boxing Day, 2018 is ahead by 7.7% or $810 million at $11.37 billion to $10.56 billion. This would be an impressive year, even if no more movie tickets were sold after boxing day.
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December 24th, 2018
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Tomorrow is Christmas Day, which is a surprisingly good day to release a movie, and two new films are hoping to take advantage of this. Holmes and Watson is by far the bigger of the two releases, but despite the comedic talent in the movie, its reviews are, well, practically non-existent. There’s only one review and it is negative. Not that long ago, I thought the film would still open with $10 million for the day, as Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly do have box office drawing power. However, the lack of reviews hurts and the buzz isn’t loud enough to compensate. I think $8 million is more likely.
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December 23rd, 2018
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Aquaman is the only certifiable hit of the weekend with an estimated opening of $67.4 million over the weekend for a total of $72.1 million including last week’s paid previews. This is not more than we predicted, but it is dominating the chart, because the competition didn’t show up. It should hit $100 million by the end of Christmas Day. Its reviews are good, but not great, and the same is true of its A minus from CinemaScore. It is also a comic book movie and those tend to have shorter legs, so it might not get as large a multiplier as the average Christmas weekend release, but it should be a large enough hit that Warner Bros. will keep this new direction going for the DCEU. Internationally, it is earning an estimated $91.3 million on 31,930 screens in 70 markets for a three-week total of $410.7 million. Overall, it is tracking ahead of every other film in the DCEU, but a lot of that has to do with China.
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December 22nd, 2018
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Friday was not as potent as midnight previews led us to believe it would be. That said, Aquaman still had an impressive $28.0 million opening day. This does include the previous night’s $9.0 million in previews, but not last weekend’s $4.7 million in previews, giving the film a $32.7 million running tally. The film’s reviews remain in the overall positive level and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have relatively good legs over the weekend, for a comic book movie. We predicted an opening weekend of $67 million and I think the film will top that, by one or two million dollars. It is more than enough for Warner Bros. to continue with the new direction DCEU is taking.
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December 19th, 2018
It is a busy week, as there are seven films opening wide over the next seven days. Not all of these will be hits—the competition is just too great for that. However, there could be a real race for Christmas champion this year. Because of its fast start in China and its strong pre-sales numbers, many believe Aquaman will top earlier expectations and earn first place over the three-day weekend. However, I think Mary Poppins Returns will be number one over the full week, partially because it should earn a bigger boost over Christmas, but also because it is opening two days early. Meanwhile, Bumblebee’s surprisingly strong reviews are lifting its box office potential.
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December 19th, 2018
Aquaman expanded worldwide at the weekend, earning $131.3 million on 44,134 screens in 43 markets for a two-week total of $266.4 million on the international market. It debuted in over 40 markets, but China was still the dominant force, as it pulled in $54.24 million on 24,528 screens there over the weekend for a two-week total of $189.30 million. A 42% drop-off is amazing for China, which is know for sharp sophomore declines, and the film is already the fourth-biggest super hero film in that market. On the other hand, the film’s biggest opening came in Mexico, where it earned $6.62 million over the weekend for a total opening of $8.00 million there. This is significantly below the openings of both Wonder Woman and Justice League. Overall, Aquaman beat those films more often then not, sometimes by rather large margins. For example, it earned $7.8 million on 3,110 screens in Russia, which was more than double Wonder Woman’s opening in that market. However, at this point, we can safely say China will contribute a disproportionate share of its international box office.
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December 18th, 2018
The weekend went according to predictions, more or less. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse was the biggest surprise and it beat our prediction by barely more than $1 million at $35.36 million. The Mule was a distant second place with $17.51 million, but this is still a good result for its production budget / target demographic. On the other hand, Mortal Engines bombed. There’s no polite way to describe this result. The overall box office rose by 37% from last weekend, hitting $115 million. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with nearly double that by itself. 2018 was off by 58% when compared to last year. That would be a terrible result, even if there were a misalignment in holidays. Fortunately, 2018 still has a huge lead over 2017, up by 9.3% or $930 million at $10.96 billion to $10.03 billion and even if 2018 loses by this amount for the next two weeks, it will still end the year with a massive lead over 2018.
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December 16th, 2018
Sony’s estimates have Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse earning $35.4 million over the weekend. Its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore should both helps its legs, as will the upcoming holidays. On the other hand, it does have direct competition next weekend, more or less. Aquaman will attack it from the super hero side of things, while Mary Poppins Returns will take from its family film side. That said, with a start like this, $100 million domestically is practically guaranteed, while $150 million is a solid goal to aim for.
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December 15th, 2018
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse debuted with $12.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $35.5 million over the full weekend, at least according to Sony. It will get a tiny boost on Sunday, because about 5% of school kids start their winter holidays on Monday. It will get a larger boost from its reviews, which remain Oscar-worthy. And this is not a case of the critics loving it and the audiences being more ambivalent, as the film earned an A plus from CinemaScore and a five-star rating from PostTrak. If the film does match Sony’s estimates, then it will be a little better than our prediction. More importantly, if its word-of-mouth boosts its legs, it could earn more than $200 million domestically. That’s asking a lot, but it is a possibility. It is certainly something to keep our eyes on.
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December 14th, 2018
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse opened with $3.5 million during its previews last night. Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to make an accurate prediction based on this opening, as this is an unusual film. It is an animated film, so we could use other animated films released during this time of year. Sing earned $1.7 million during its previews two years ago; however, that was a Wednesday release that opened less than a week before Christmas Day. Into the Spider-Verse doesn’t have school holidays to boost its numbers, which should help its legs. On the other hand, it is a super hero movie and its Fanboy Effect will hurt its legs. Overall, I think this is good news for the film and it should top our prediction, but we won’t have a really firm grasp on where it’s going until we get Friday’s estimates tomorrow.
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December 13th, 2018
After two weeks with no new releases in the top five, we have three new films vying for a position there. This includes Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, which is all but guaranteed a spot in the top five. The Mule was thought to be an Awards Season contender, but its reviews are disappointing, given those high hopes. Finally there’s Mortal Engines, a film that cost $100 million to make and will likely barely earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with $220.01 million. That’s more than the entire box office will earn this year. This could be more than all three wide releases earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has a $1 billion lead over 2017, so three weeks of bad losses won’t change that.
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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December 1st, 2018
November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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October 2nd, 2018
Super hero adventure starring Shameik Moore opens December 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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June 7th, 2018
Animated adventure starring Shameik Moore opens December 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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