This graph shows Hailee Steinfeld’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After a robust Memorial day weekend start, The Little Mermaid retains its opening count of 4,320 theaters from last week, once again owning the title of widest release on both land and sea. The latest adaptation of the charming franchise gathered $95.58 million from North American theaters, while earning less overseas with a take of $68.3 million. This week however the film will slip into second place at the box office as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into theaters.
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Miles Morales returns for the next chapter of the Spider-Verse saga, an adventure that will transport Brooklyn’s full-time, friendly neighborhood Spider-Man across the Multiverse to join forces with Gwen Stacy and a new team of Spider-People to face off with a villain more powerful than anything they have ever encountered.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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It is an interesting week with four top-notch releases. Unfortunately, two of those releases, Doctor Strange and Moonlight, are VOD only. This leaves just two contenders for Pick of the Week: Arrival and The Edge of Seventeen. Both are absolute must haves, but Arrival’s Blu-ray or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack have far more extras and it is the Pick of the Week.
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The Edge of Seventeen was one of those films that had light Awards Season buzz. Its reviews were 95% positive, but it only managed a couple of majornominations. Worse still for the studio, it bombed in theaters. Is this a film that deserved better during Awards Season? Does it at least deserve a bigger audience on the home market?
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them easily earned first place on Friday. However, it only managed $29.7 million, which was well below expectations. This is the worst opening day in the Harry Potter franchise since The Chamber of Secrets. (The two films are so close that the final figure for Fantastic Beasts could be the worst in the franchise.) The reviews are weaker than the franchise as a whole, but its CinemaScore is an A and that’s roughly average for the previous 8 Harry Potter films. The film should still earn between $70 million and $75 million over the weekend, depending on if the high CinemaScore can overcome the Fanboy Effect. I would choose to be optimistic, but that hasn’t worked out this weekend.
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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When Marnie Was There is the latest Studio Ghibli released through GKIDS. It did very well in limited release, at least compared to most animated films, but it was still not seen by most. Now it is coming out on Blu-ray / DVD. Is it worth checking out for those missed it the first time? Is it worth picking up for fans of the studio?
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A24 has only been around for little more than two years, but in that time, I've reviewed more than a dozen of their releases. I haven't enjoyed all of them, but their hit to miss ratio has been better than most. Likewise, their hit to miss ratio at the box office has been better than most. If this keeps up, they might start releasing wide releases in a few years. However, while their track record is amazing compared to most limited releases, Barely Lethal is not a success story. It earned terrible reviews and missed the Mendoza Line during its opening weekend, earning less than $2,000 per theater. Granted it was also a VOD premiere, so that's a mitigating circumstance, it was one of the weakest box office performers for A24. Was this result fair? Or did it deserve better?
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There are not a lot of films on this week's list; however, there are several that are earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. Heaven Knows What and I Believe in Unicorns are both coming of age films. Tu dors Nicole and Wet Bum are both Canadian films, the latter of which is only playing in Canada at the moment. Finally, there's Results. Its reviews are not as good as the other four, but its chances of earning some measure of mainstream success is likely greater.
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Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.
Kevin Costner practically stopped acting in movies after Swing Vote. After appearing in Man of Steel last summer, he has four films this year. Unfortunately, so far none of them have been box office hits. 3 Days to Kill, for instance, earned just over $30 million at the domestic box office. Is it truly a bad movie? Or was this more of a result of a bad release date?
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This weekend is almost as busy for limited releases as last week, and on the plus side, there are a handful of films that are worth checking out. Only Lovers Left Alive and Joe are both earning great reviews. On the other hand, Only Lovers Left Alive is probably too "Art House" to thrive, while Joe is opening too wide and on Video on Demand, so its box office chances are also limited. Dancing in Jaffa is earning perfect reviews, but documentaries rarely have breakout success. Finally, Disco Singh could be a surprise hit, as it could be on track to break records in its native India.
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It's another slow week on the home market. There are five or so first run releases, but the biggest box office was earned by Free Birds, which earned $55 million. Fortunately, while there are no box office hits, there are some high quality releases, led by Dallas Buyers Club. Unfortunately, the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack has so few extras that I'm convinced a special edition is on its way, so it isn't a Pick of the Week contender. So what are the Pick of the Week contenders this week? First there's Cutie and the Boxer on DVD or Blu-ray. Second there's ... Cutie and the Boxer is the Pick of the Week.
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After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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The headline might claim God loves limited releases, but it is clear the critics don't. There are more than a dozen limited releases on this week's list, but many of them are earning reviews that are weak, or much, much worse. God Loves Uganda is practically the lone exception, as it is earning perfect reviews. Unfortunately, it's a documentary, so its chances of expanding significantly are very limited. On the other hand, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete might be the breakout hit of the week. Its reviews are not as good, but good enough to suggest it will find an audience, but it is opening in more than 100 theaters, which might be too many.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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