April 29th, 2020
It is a slow week for DVD and Blu-rays with almost no first-run releases to talk about. The Rhythm Section is the biggest first-run release of the week and it bombed hard. As for the best, The Assistant and The Grand Budapest Hotel are the only two contenders for Pick of the Week. That said, I am really looking forward to Elvira: Mistress of the Dark and I won’t have to wait long, because the screener is on its way.
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April 9th, 2020
This could turn out to be the most important weekend for the movie industry in decades. It’s the weekend
Trolls: World Tour comes out on the home market. This is the first major motion picture with a planned saturation level release that is not being pushed back due to the Covid-19 outbreak, but is instead coming out on Video on Demand. In a few years, we might look back at this week as the week the movie industry changed fundamentally, if this film is a big enough hit to convince studios that theatrical releases are unnecessary.
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February 11th, 2020
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It was bound to happen, I was just hoping it wouldn’t happen this soon, but 2020 suffered its first loss in the year-over-year comparison. Birds of Prey failed to live up to the very low end of expectations opening with just $33 million. On the positive side, the holdovers held on really well and that helped limit losses. In fact, the overall box office was $95 million this weekend, up 18% from last weekend. That said, this is still down 16% from the same weekend last year and this number is a lot more important. Year-to-date, 2020 is still ahead of 2019 by $62 million or 6.2% at $1.07 billion to $1.01 billion, so we clearly shouldn’t be panicking this early on, but there are some troubling signs at the box office.
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February 4th, 2020
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The Super Bowl turned out to be a good game, at least according to the score sheet. This perhaps hurt the box office over the weekend, as Bad Boys for Life fell a little faster than expected. That said, it still dominated the box office with a huge lead over the second place film, 1917. Meanwhile, the two new releases, Gretel and Hansel and The Rhythm Section, both bombed to varying degrees. The overall box office fell 33% from last weekend, hitting $81 million; however, an extreme decline like this is to be expected on Super Bowl weekend. More importantly, this is 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that helped 2020 extend its lead over 2019 to 8.9% / $77 million at $945 million to $868 million. A few more weeks like this and I’ll actually become optimistic about the year’s box office chances.
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February 2nd, 2020
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Bad Boys for Life is extending its run at the top of the chart the weekend with Sony projecting a total of $17.675 million as of Sunday morning. That’s down 48% from last weekend, which is another solid hold, and takes the film to the brink of $150 million at the domestic box office—it’s expected to have around $148 million by close of business. The studio is baking in a big 71% drop today thanks to competition with the Super Bowl, so it may end up doing just a little better than predicted.
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February 1st, 2020
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If Friday’s estimates are any indication, then the weekend will be a little weaker than anticipated. Bad Boys for Life will easy lead the way after pulling in $5.19 million on Friday. Sony is projecting $17 million based on this result, which is a little lower than our $19 million to $20 million prediction, but still a great hold for a mainstream action film on Super Bowl weekend. This won’t be enough to get the movie to $150 million by the end of the weekend and it likely ends the film’s chances at $200 million domestically. That said, it is still going to be the biggest hit in the franchise by the end of Saturday, so there’s still plenty of reasons to celebrate.
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January 31st, 2020
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Gretel and Hansel got off to a faster start than The Rhythm Section did during Thursday previews. This isn’t surprising, as horror movies tend to be more front-loaded than nearly all other genres. The movie managed $475,000, which his a little more than the $425,000 The Turning earned during its previews. Furthermore, its reviews are flirting with the overall positive level, so its legs could be decent, all things considered. That said, even optimistic projections from this point have it barely beating our prediction with between $7 million and $8 million. This is a good start for a film that reportedly cost just $5 million to make.
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January 31st, 2020
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It is Super Bowl weekend, which is one of the biggest media events of the year. Even people who have no interest in the NFL tend to at least pay attention to the game. Because of that, no studio wants to release a typical film this time of year and instead focus on counter-programming, usually female-led counter-programming. Neither The Rhythm Section nor Gretel and Hansel are expected to challenge Bad Boys for Life for first place, but the pair could be in a close race with each other. This weekend last year, no movie earned $10 million or more, while Miss Bala opened with less than $10 million. 2020 should end the month on a huge winning note.
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January 22nd, 2020
Thriller starring opens January 31 ... Full Movie Details.
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January 1st, 2020
It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there.
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September 20th, 2019
Thriller starring opens January 31, 2020 ... Full Movie Details.
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