December 23rd, 2022
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A bevy of new films arrives in theaters for Christmas, but none are expected to put pressure on Avatar: The Way of Water over the weekend. Here are our (abbreviated) predictions for the weekend…
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September 5th, 2012
Depending on how you look at things, there were more than ten new releases to reach the top 30 on the DVD Sales Chart. One of the confusing "new" releases is The Hunger Games, which spent its first full week on the home market, but came out a few days before Tuesday. It sold 2.50 million units and generated $42.48 million during its first full week of release, for totals of 4.68 million units / $79.46 million and it is already the second best selling DVD of 2012 and should be in first place very shortly. I was amazed that the film actually sold more this week than it did last week, even with its shortened opening week. After all, Breaking Dawn, Part 1 also opened with a shortened week, but fell nearly 40% during its first full week of release. Clearly this movie has much better word-of-mouth.
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March 27th, 2012
Like last week, new releases dominated the DVD sales chart this week with three new releases topping the chart. The best of the best was Happy Feet Two with 896,000 units / $13.43 million during its first week on the home market. The film struggled at the box office, so this start on the home market is better than expected.
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March 14th, 2012
Hugo led a limited number of new releases on top of the Blu-ray sales chart. It sold 523,000 units while generating $14.37 million in sales. This is a good result compared to its theatrical run, but not great given the film's production budget. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 51%, which is fantastic for a family film, although this is not your typical family film.
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March 13th, 2012
Puss in Boots remained in first place on the DVD sales chart during its first full week of release. It sold an additional 798,000 units and generating $12.16 million in revenue for totals of 1.65 million units / $26.74 million so far.
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March 7th, 2012
Like it did on the DVD Sales Chart, Puss in Boots opened on first place on the Blu-ray sales chart. It sold 571,000 units generating $15.99 million in sales, and that's just from Friday through Sunday. Its opening Blu-ray share was 40%, which is excellent for a kid's movie.
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March 7th, 2012
Puss in Boots opened in top spot on the DVD Sales Chart despite coming out on Friday instead of Tuesday. Over the weekend, it sold 851,000 units generating $14.58 million in sales. As a point of comparison, Shrek Forever After sold about twice as many during its first week of release, but it was a Tuesday release and it came out during the heart of Christmas shopping season.
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February 21st, 2012
It's a mixed week on the home market. The biggest hit coming out on Tuesday is Tower Heist, which struggled compared to expectations and its production budget. The rest of Tuesday's offerings include more wide releases that missed at the box office, some TV on DVD releases from cable networks, as well as a few limited releases of note. Fortunately, there is a film coming out on Friday that is picking up the slack. Puss in Boots also missed expectations at the box office, at least domestically. However, it earned more than $500 million worldwide, not to mention an Oscar nomination. It is also the easy choice for Pick of the Week.
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February 21st, 2012
Shrek is arguably the biggest digitally animated franchise of all time. However, the last two installments missed expectations with critics and it was time for a change. That change came with Puss In Boots, a prequel / origin story for Puss In Boots. It struggled at the box office compared to the previous installments, but was it also a weaker film? Or were people just burned out on the Shrek franchise?
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February 9th, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Animated Feature Film, which is surprisingly competitive this year, especially compared to most years. There's no Pixar film nominated, one of the best-reviewed cartoons was snubbed, the winner at the Golden Globes and PGAs was also snubbed, and two of the nominees were virtually unknown films before they were announced. It could be hard to pick a winner.
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January 24th, 2012
Yesterday was one of the biggest days during Awards Season as The Oscar nominations were announced in the morning. It was a two horse race for top spot as far as the big winners are concerned. Hugo earned the most nominations with eleven, while The Artist was right behind with ten. However, one could argue The Artist is the bigger winner, as more of its nominations were in the more prestigious categories.
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January 18th, 2012
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows remained on top of the international chart with $27.4 million in 57 markets for totals of $222.0 million internationally and $392.2 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening came in Brazil where it topped the chart with $3.37 million on 446 screens. With openings in France and Japan still ahead, Game of Shadows should top $300 million internationally, while it has a shot at $500 million worldwide.
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January 11th, 2012
It's clear that Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows won't surpass its predecessor domestically, while it will be difficult to avoid that fate internationally. That said, it did climb into first place on the international chart with $44.9 million in 51 markets over the weekend for a total of $180.6 million after four weeks of release, while its worldwide total reached $337.6 million. It debuted in first place in a couple major markets this past weekend. In Australia it earned $6.65 million on 386 screens, while in Spain it managed $4.67 million on 459. Even if it had no major markets left to open in, it still would get to $250 million internationally. With debuts in Brazil, France, and Japan ahead, it could reach north of $300 million.
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January 5th, 2012
Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol remained in first place on the international chart with $45.86 million on 7,342 screens in 50 markets for a total of $227.01 million internationally and $359.42 million worldwide. This includes a first place, $12.77 million opening on 509 screens in the U.K. It had to settle for second place in Mexico with $1.32 million on 1,065 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.64 million and in Brazil with $1.04 million on 501 screens over the weekend and a total opening of $6.02 million. The film has almost caught up with Mission: Impossible: III and is closing in on the average for the franchise.
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January 4th, 2012
The nominees for this year's Producers Guild of America were announced and there were not a lot of surprises. For instance, nine of the ten nominees for Theatrical Motion Pictures also earned Golden Globe Nominations for either Best Drama or Best Musical / Comedy. Four of the five Animated films also did the same. It does make the Awards Season picture a lot clearer going forward, but it makes coming up with something to say much harder.
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December 21st, 2011
New releases dominated the international chart starting with Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol, which debuted in first place with $69.49 million on 6,693 screens in 42 markets. It debuted in first place in Japan with $7.35 million on 636 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.32 million. It also placed first in neighboring South Korea with $7.18 million on 948 screens over the weekend and $8.67 million in total. Other first place openings included Australia with $4.23 million on 414 and Spain with $2.64 million on 528. It had to settle for second place in Russia, but still managed $6.08 million on 1099 screens and in France with $5.03 million on 616. The final major market release of the week was Germany, where it earned second place with $3.48 million on 577 screens over the weekend for a total of $4.00 million. The film has yet to open in Brazil, the U.K., Italy and Scandinavia, among other markets, and should finish in a similar range to the other films in the franchise.
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December 16th, 2011
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the Awards Season picture started to look a whole lot clearer. The Artist led the way with six nominations, while The Descendents and The Help were right behind with five apiece.
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December 15th, 2011
For the first time in four weeks, we had a new number one film on the international chart, as Puss In Boots continued its climb reaching top spot. It expanded into 16 additional markets, including a handful of major ones. This propelled it into first place with $47.06 million on 6,749 screens in 40 markets for a total of $143.72 million, which is just over what it has made domestically. The film's biggest debuted was Germany, where it earned top spot with $6.88 million on 680 screens, including previews. It was even more impressive in Brazil with $5.56 million on 738 screens, also including previews. Brazil is more of an emerging market than a major market, so the fact that it generated more revenue than its openings in either Australia ($4.03 million on 507 screens, including previews) or in the U.K. ($3.07 million on 510) is quite stunning. With debuts in Italy, Japan, and other markets ahead of it, not to mention the Christmas holiday, it could double what it currently has internationally, which would lift its worldwide total over $400 million.
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December 7th, 2011
For the third weekend in a row, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 earned top spot on the international chart, this time with $40.2 million on 9,000 screens in 73 markets. It now has totals of $341 million internationally and $588 million worldwide. Its biggest opening of the weekend came from South Korea, where it made $3.22 million on 706 screens for a total opening of $5.12 million. Its biggest running tally comes from the U.K. where it has made $42.76 million, including $2.61 million on 523 screens this past weekend.
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November 30th, 2011
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 remained in top spot on the international chart with $76 million on 10,500 screens in 68 markets for a total of $268 million internationally and $489 million worldwide. It has already topped the first film in the franchise and by the end it should improve upon the franchise's international average. Its best new market was Germany, at $10.89 million on 789 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $13.70 million. Meanwhile, its best holdover was the U.K., where it added $7.11 million on 546 screens to its two-week total, which sits at $36.24 million.
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November 21st, 2011
Normally the breaking of the dawn is a sign of hope, and normally a film opening with close to $140 million is a reason to celebrate. However, despite the success of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, there are some troubling signs ahead. If we can focus on the positive for a bit, the film did help the overall box office rocket up 63% from last weekend to $222 million, which was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. That's not enough to suggest 2011 will catch up to 2010 by the end of the year. We are still 3.5% behind last year's pace at $9.09 billion to $9.42 billion and we are rapidly running out of time. Plus there are worse signs ahead.
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November 17th, 2011
2011 got some much needed good news last weekend, as the overall box office topped expectations and we saw year-over-year growth. The industry sure hopes we can continue that winning trend this week. There are some reasons to be optimistic, even though this weekend last year saw the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, which made just over $125 million during its opening weekend. Most analysts think The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will top that figure with relative ease. Additionally, Happy Feet 2 looks like it will be a very solid counter-programming release and, on the high end, the top two films could make more this weekend than the entire box office made last year. It's probably too late for 2011 to catch up with 2010, but every victory is still worth celebrating.
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November 14th, 2011
We finally had some good news, as there was a surprise hit at the box office. Immortals opened with substantially more than expected, while the rest of the top five at least came within $500,000 of weekend predictions. This led to an increase from last weekend of 20% to $136 million, while compared to last year, the box office was 12% higher. There is still some bad news. For instance, 2011 is still behind 2010's pace by about 4% at $8.83 billion to $9.19 billion. Also, in order to catch up, we need to maintain year-over-year gains that are about twice as high as they were this weekend. I don't see that happening.
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November 13th, 2011
Relativity will enjoy a relatively comfortable win at the box office this weekend, based on Sunday estimates. 3D fantasy action movie Immortals is set to earn about $32 million, according to their Sunday estimate, and will comfortably beat fellow-opener Jack and Jill. The Adam Sandler comedy is projected to earn $26 million, which makes it essentially tied with Puss in Boots. The animated adventure will be down just 22% this weekend and has passed $100 million at the box office in its third weekend.
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November 10th, 2011
2011 continues to stumble to the finish line and I'm starting to get more than a little depressed at the overall box office numbers. This week we have three wide releases, if you stretch the definition of wide a little bit, as J. Edgar will open in less than 2,000 theaters. On the other hand, both Jack and Jill and Immortals are opening in 3,000 theaters and both have a shot at first place. However, Puss in Boots has an even better shot at holding onto first place for the third weekend in a row. While this is good news for Puss in Boots, it's bad news for the box office as a whole. It will likely earn substantially less than last year's number one film, Megamind. The combined openings of the three wide releases coming out this week will likely be larger than three wide releases from last year. If there's a pleasant surprise or two, 2011 will be able to earn the win. At least there's little chance we will see the kind of year-over-year declines we saw the last two weeks.
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November 9th, 2011
The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn remained on top of the international chart during its second weekend of release, while it crossed the $100 million milestone over the weekend. It expanded into more than two dozen new markets, but most were of the smaller variety. Overall, it made $38.98 million on 7,103 screens in 45 markets, for a total of $123.55 million so far. Russia was the only real exception, where it opened in second place with $4.81 million on 788 screens. It plummeted 74% in France, but still added $6.99 million on 850 screens for a two-week total of $33.44 million. On the other hand, it remained in first place in Spain with $5.19 million on 819 screens over the weekend, for a total of $16.62 million after two. At this point, $200 million internationally is a given, which is likely close to the film's total budget. If it can close close to that figure here, it will break even before the lucrative home market.
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November 7th, 2011
November began like most of 2011 has gone, on a losing note. We are running out of time to turn things around and this weekend it wasn't even close. Neither Tower Heist nor A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas put up much of a fight at the box office and, if it weren't for Puss in Boots's incredible hold, the numbers would have been nothing short of tragic. Granted, the box office rose by 9% from last weekend to $114 million, but that was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2011 is behind 2010 by 4% at $8.66 billion to $9.02 billion and, at this point, I'd settle for that situation not getting any worse from now till the New Year.
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November 3rd, 2011
October ended on a winning note, but overall the month was terrible. Only two films released that month will get to $100 million, while there were five that were bombs. The industry is hoping things will turn around starting this weekend. That might be tricky, as the two new releases opening this weekend, Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas are no where near as strong as last year's new releases. Tower Heist likely won't top Due Date, while Harold and Kumar won't open as strongly as For Colored Girls... did. And that's not even taking into account Megamind, which led the way. If 2011 is to catch up to 2010, it will need to average 20% growth year-over-year. However, it is far more likely we will see 20% drop-off this weekend.
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November 3rd, 2011
The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn doesn't open here till a few days before Christmas, but it led the way on the international chart with an astonishing $56.56 million on 5,699 screens in 19 markets. Its biggest opening was in France, where it managed $26.97 million on 850 screens. That's like a $150 million opening here. It's a record for a non-sequel in that market. It wasn't as impressive in the U.K., but it did score $10.83 million on 512 screens, which is equivalent to a $50 million to $60 million opening here. These results will force me to re-evaluate its box office potential with an above $200 million run a lot more likely now. Granted, the source material is better known in Europe, plus it will have a lot more competition when it debuts here, but this is still a great sign going forward.
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November 2nd, 2011
The winners of our Cat-Like Reflexes are Needed to Win contest were determined and they are...
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November 1st, 2011
Puss in Boots was the biggest IMAX draw domestically earning $2.2 million on 269 screens, while it also made $900,000 on 25 IMAX screens internationally. Meanwhile, The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn started its international run well ahead of its domestic debut, pulling in $1.2 million on 28 screens. This bodes well for its potential here.
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October 31st, 2011
It was a rare winning weekend at the box office, although it came too late to salvage the month, which was a bloody affair and 2011 fell tens of millions of dollars further behind last year's pace. The lone bright spot over the weekend was Puss in Boots, which easily led the way. However, even here there was darkness, as it failed to live up to the low end of expectations. The overall box office was a macabre $105 million, or 14% lower than last weekend. We did get a jolt with the box office creeping up 11% from last year. However, while double-digit growth would normally send chills up your spine, not having to deal with Halloween on the weekend itself explains much of that success. Year-to-date, 2011 remains lifeless down 4% from last year at $8.52 billion compared to $8.86 billion and unless some dark magic can revive the box office, and soon, we will have the second year in a row of year-over-year declines and 2011 could see the lowest ticket sales in about a decade and a half. That's truly scary.
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October 30th, 2011
Although it's perhaps an exaggeration to call it the start of the Holiday Season, Puss in Boots' debut this weekend was intended to give Dreamworks Animation a head start on what will be a very competitive season, and it looks as though it can be called a moderate success. The Shrek spin-off will earn an estimated $34 million this weekend, which should put it on track to earn comfortably over $100 million during its run in domestic theaters. While that's a very respectable performance for October, it pales in comparison to other films in the franchise. Even Shrek Forever After more than doubled that number, and the original Shrek posted over $42 million in 2001. So it's far from certain that this will be the start of a long-lived offshot for the franchise.
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October 27th, 2011
Puss in Boots was pushed up a week and will likely dominate the pre-Halloween weekend with last weekend's winner, Paranormal Activity 3, coming in a distant second. There are a couple of other new wide releases, In Time and The Rum Diary, but neither are generating a lot of buzz. There is some good news, as this weekend last year was a real disappointment and there's a chance both Puss in Boots and Paranormal Activity 3 will earn more than last year's number one film, Saw VII. Hopefully October can end on a high note, because it's been a bad month so far.
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October 21st, 2011
Puss in Boots moved up a week and it should crush the competition and should earn more than the other two wide releases combined. More importantly, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Puss in Boots.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Monte Carlo on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Monte Carlo on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2011
There is a little bit of good news going into October, as September did help close the year-to-date deficit, even if it was by a small amount. Unfortunately, we really needed a better result to be optimistic about our chances of closing that gap entirely by the end of the year. Even worse, this month represents the last chance 2011 has to catch up to 2010. I know there are two additional months left in the year, but October of 2010 was a soft month with four of the five weekends showing year-over-year declines. If October 2011 is even weaker, the odds of making up the $300 million deficit will be all but gone. It becomes even more troubling that there are no movies opening in October that are guaranteed to be monster hits. So, while October of 2010 was weak compared to October of 2009, it looks like it will be stronger than October of 2011. Hopefully I'm just being pessimistic. There are a couple films that have a shot at $100 million and I will be surprised if none of them at least come close to that milestone, but the slate of films is weaker than I would like.
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