March 15th, 2015
While Big Hero 6 wasn't the only new release on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, it might as well have been. Not only did it crush the competition for the week, it is already the best selling Blu-ray of 2015 by a massive margin. It sold 1.99 million units generating $37.59 million in the process. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 67%, which is stunning. This would be stunning for a visually intensive action film aimed at Fanboys. For a family film, it is hard to comprehend.
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March 8th, 2015
There were a ton of new releases to reach the top twenty of the Blu-ray sales chart this week. Unfortunately, while Game of Thrones: Season Four, Birdman, and others did well, the overall box office wasn't particularly sharp. There were 1.1% fewer units sold when compared to last week, but because the number one release was a TV on DVD release, the revenue rose by 7.1%. Compared to last year, Blu-ray sales were up 24% in terms of units and 3.5% in terms of revenue. The overall Blu-ray share returned to normal at 43%.
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March 8th, 2015
Every single film in the top five of the DVD sales chart were new releases, as were eight of the top ten films. Game of Thrones: Season Four earned first place with 241,000 units / $7.23 million during its first week of release. It is hard to be upset about that start.
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March 8th, 2015
The top four films on this week's Blu-ray sales chart and nine of the top twenty were new releases. The number one release was Game of Thrones: Season Four, which sold 286,000 units and generated $9.98 million in sales. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 54%, which is incredible compared to the average TV on DVD release. Then again, Game of Thrones isn't the average TV show.
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March 4th, 2015
Only two films were in the $10,000 club at the box office this past weekend, and they were in a close race. '71 led the way with an average of $13,940 in four theaters. Meanwhile, The Hunting Ground was close behind with an average of $12,054 in two theaters.
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March 3rd, 2015
This is not a great week for new releases on the home market. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 is by far the biggest new title and its DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack is going to sell a ton of units. However, its reviews are not up to the level required to make it our Pick of the Week. Conversely, Foxcatcher is award-worthy, but the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack doesn't have enough extras to be a Pick of the Week. It seemed like every choice for Pick of the Week wasn't quite up to the level needed, so I'm going to go outside the box and pick To Write Love On Her Arms on DVD, which is a film I've been waiting to see for about three years.
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March 1st, 2015
Birdman was the big winner at the Oscars this year. It won four times, sharing top spot with The Grand Budapest Hotel; however, it won more prestigious awards, including Best Picture. Did it deserve to win? Or was it carried by hype?
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March 1st, 2015
Will Smith remains a top 20 force on The Numbers Bankability Index, thanks mainly to his leading turns in tentpoles and franchise films. His draw in smaller movies has always been less of a sure thing, even in his heyday. The performance of Focus this weekend is perhaps not as much of a surprise, with Warner Bros. projecting an OK $19.1 million debut for the film—not a terrible number for the time of year, and broadly in line with the openings for Seven Pounds ($14.8m), The Pursuit of Happyness ($26.5m) and Ali ($14.7m).
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February 23rd, 2015
Once more, entrants in The Numbers Predict the Academy Awards Contest did an impressive job of predicting winners, in spite of a volatile Awards Season. Overall, the top voter-getters in 18 out 24 categories went on to win the Oscar on the night, including all acting awards, all but one of the technical awards, and all the short films.
Our biggest misses were actually in the biggest categories: Best Picture was won by Birdman, not Boyhood; Alejandro Inarritu beat Richard Linklater for Best Director; and Big Hero 6 prevailed over How to Train Your Dragon 2.
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February 23rd, 2015
Thank you to everyone who entered our 18th annual Predict the Academy Awards Contest. As usual, the contest drew hundreds of high-quality entries, with the winners predicting at least 21 of the winners on what proved to be an unpredictable Oscar night.
Read on for our list of 2015 prize winners...
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February 22nd, 2015
The Oscar ceremony is tonight and we will be live-blogging the winners... assuming I don't get bored and wander away. On a serious note, while my job is all about movies and I love watching movies, I love paying attention to box office numbers, I even love Awards Season. I hate ceremonies. As per usual, here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions / wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers. If I predicted a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don't think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award were not even nominated, plus a few I don't have a real opinion on.
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February 22nd, 2015
The polls are closed in our 18th annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and it has turned out to be the most exciting two-horse race in the history of the contest.
After weeks of intense debate among our voters, we have a virtual tie in the biggest categories of all: Best Picture and Best Director. The predicted Best Picture winner is, in fact, a statistical dead heat. Boyhood garnered 47% of the total vote, and Birdman 46%, giving the Linklater epic the tiniest of edges.
Best Director is a clearer contest, but still close, and still a bout between Boyhood and Birdman. Richard Linklater is favorite to win Best Director, perhaps in part because he’s more “due” for the award than Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. As noted, though, “favorite” is strong, given the closeness of this category, with Linklater getting 55% of the votes and Inarritu taking a 46% share.
The other big story about this year’s contest is just how much of a two-horse contest it really is. With 93% of the Best Picture vote going to Birdman and Boyhood, the remaining nominees were left to split the other 7% of the vote. American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything each gathered a handful of votes from The Numbers readers, and Selma and Whiplash are given virtually no chance at all.
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February 22nd, 2015
The Independent Spirit Awards winners were announced last night and there were few surprises. Birdman led the way with 3 wins, but it wasn't the only film to come away with more than one award.
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February 20th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the biggest prize, Best Picture. Like with Best Director, this is a two-horse race with the same two films at the top of the list.
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February 20th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the Best Director category, which is neither among the most nor among the least competitive categories. We definitely have a favorite, but we also have another nominee with a better than average shot at winning.
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February 17th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This is actually a two-horse race and for once, I'd be happy with either of the two leading contenders winning.
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February 16th, 2015
This is the best week on the home market in a long time. Game of Thrones is one of the best TV shows on at the moment, if not the best TV show, and its DVD and Blu-ray is Pick of the Week material. Additionally, there are a few potential Oscar winners hitting the home market this week as well. On the down side, there is not a lot of depth. Birdman, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, and The Theory of Everything are all up for Oscars next weekend and all of them are worth picking up. Life Itself was snubbed by Oscar voters, but it too is a must have. However, in the end, I went with Game of Thrones for Pick of the Week.
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February 14th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America winners were just announced and there wasn't a lot of surprises to talk about, but enough interesting things happened that it wasn't boring.
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February 13th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two leading actor categories, finishing with Best Lead Actor. As I previously mentioned, three of the four actor races are not even close; however, this is the one exception and there is a two-horse race to pay attention to.
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February 12th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two supporting actor categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. Three of the four acting categories have almost no suspense to them, as there is an overwhelming favorite amongst the five nominees. This is not the exception.
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February 12th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two supporting actor categories, finishing with Best Supporting Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actress category, Best Supporting Actor isn't even close and one of the five nominees is absolutely running away with things.
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February 8th, 2015
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises, including the number one winner. The Grand Budapest Hotel took home five awards, while Boyhood, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash earned three each.
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February 7th, 2015
The Directors Guild of America were handed out Saturday night and the number surprises was... well, none. Birdman was expected to win and it did, while CitizenFour is rapidly becoming the Oscar-favorite.
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January 26th, 2015
The Screen Actors Guild winners were announced Sunday and there were some surprises, mostly in the negative. Birdman picked up the biggest prize, but there were six different winners in the six categories.
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January 25th, 2015
The Producers Guild of America handed out their awards last night and there weren't many surprises to discuss. In fact, the favorite won all three theatrical awards, starting with...
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January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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January 15th, 2015
The Directors Guild of America were the last major Awards Season group to hand out their nominations and did so over two days this week. Not surprisingly, for the most part, the same group of films appear on this list as have appeared on the rest of the Awards Season nominations. Birdman, Boyhood, and The Imitation Game all make appearances,
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January 12th, 2015
We are still waiting for the DGA nominations to be announced, but we had the first major awards show on Sunday. The Golden Globes winners were announced Sunday night and while there were not a lot of surprises, there are some things worth talking about. Leading the way with three wins was Boyhood, while Birdman and The Theory of Everything each picked up a pair of wins.
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January 11th, 2015
The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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January 10th, 2015
The Writers Guild of America nominations were latest to be announced, but were there any real surprises? Yes. Birdman didn't get a nomination, but Guardians of the Galaxy did. More on that later. Besides those two films, there are not a lot of surprises here and the usual contenders are present, including Boyhood and The Imitation Game, but there are also some other notable films missing.
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January 10th, 2015
The Producers Guild of America nominations were announced and there's not a lot of surprises among the three categories. Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and others continue to get accolades, but there are also some films that are being passed over too often.
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January 6th, 2015
There were very few new films that came out during the first weekend of 2015, so it should come as no surprise that the per theater chart looked mostly the same as it did last weekend. This includes the top of the chart, American Sniper, which earned an average of $169,227 in four theaters, which is 7% higher than last weekend. That bodes well for its planned wide release later in the month. The best new release was A Most Violent Year, which opened with an average of $43,197, also in four theaters. This film should also expand significantly over the coming weeks. Selma was next with an average of $28,781 in 22 theaters. Inherent Vice earned an average of $15,712 in 16 theaters. It is expanding wide in just a few days, so this is a great result. Two Days, One Night was right behind with an average of $15,628 in two theaters. The Imitation Game was roughly even with last week with an average of $10,308. Leviathan rose earning an average of $10,300 in three theaters.
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December 16th, 2014
Inherent Vice won top spot on the per theater chart with an average of $65,637 in five theaters. This is the fifth best per theater average for the year, which is much better than expected. Second place went to The Imitation Game with an average of $34,010 in 25 theaters. It still has plenty of room to expand. The final film in the $10,000 club was Wild with an average of $13,198 in 116 theaters. It too has some room to expand, while it has also reached some level of mainstream success.
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December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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December 10th, 2014
The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced Wednesday morning. Are there surprises worth mentioning? Is the Oscar picture beginning to take shape? Like with the Independent Spirit Awards, Birdman led the way this time earning four nominations from six categories, while Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything had three nods each.
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December 7th, 2014
With no new wide releases, the weekend after Thanksgiving will see a comfortable victory at the box office for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1. Now playing in its third weekend, the film will gross around $21.6 million, taking it to a total of $257.7m, virtually equal with The Lego Movie in third place for the year. Weekend performances for returning movies were down across the board coming off the holiday, with, in the top 10, only Gone Girl and Birdman down less than 40%.
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December 6th, 2014
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last week and I'm getting to them a little late, because I needed to organize the whole Awards Season stories. Firstly, I've decided to use the year the movies were released not the year the awards are handed out, unlike what we did last year. This means both will have 2014 as the year. Not ideal, but it is better to fix the mistake now than carry on making it. Secondly, the headlines are just going to be the name of the Awards and either nominations or winners. This will make it easier for readers to find later on. As for the Independent Spirit Awards nominations, Birdman led the way with 6 nods, while Boyhood, Nightcrawler, and Selma were right behind with 5 each.
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December 3rd, 2014
The Imitation Game led the way on the per theater chart with an incredible average of $119,838 in four theaters. This is the second best per theater average of the year, behind only The Grand Budapest Hotel. Second place went to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, with an average of $13,725 during its sophomore stint. The final film in the $10,000 is The Babadook, which earned an average of $10,002 in three theaters.
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November 23rd, 2014
If you could sum up 2014 at the box office in one sentence, this weekend’s headline probably comes close. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 1 is the film we’ve been waiting for all year: the third film in a franchise that has already topped $150 million on each of its previous two opening frames, with the weekend before Thanksgiving all to itself, and reviews that, if not stellar, are at least very respectable for a franchise tentpole. A weekend of $150 million plus seemed a very good bet, and something bigger still couldn’t be ruled out. But, come Sunday, Lionsgate is projecting a $123 million weekend, down about 20% from previous installments. That is, of course, a fantastic weekend by most measures: it’s the 15th-best weekend of all time, and easily the biggest opening weekend in 2014. But this will now be the first year since 2010 without a $150m+ weekend, and the debate about the waning influence of theater-going on the industry will undoubtedly be re-opened.
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November 19th, 2014
Foxcatcher was the latest Oscar-hopeful to top the per theater chart earning an average of $45,146 in six theaters. This practically guarantees some measure of mainstream success; however, unless it can earn some Awards Season nominations, it likely won't expand truly wide. Likewise, The Theory of Everything expanded to 41 theaters earning an average of $17,937. It also reached its first major milestone over the weekend and will earn more in the future. The overall number one film, Dumb and Dumber To, was next with an average of $11,450, while The Homesman was right behind with an average of $11,358 in four theaters.
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November 16th, 2014
The box office chart is starting to take on a decidedly seasonal look, with a comedy sequel topping the chart, a smattering of Oscar hopefuls doing well in limited release, and not a single top 10 film dropping by more than 50% from last weekend. The comedy sequel, Dumb and Dumber To, will narrowly win the weekend with a shade over $38 million, per Universal’s Sunday estimate. That’s $2 million more than Big Hero 6 will post in its second weekend in release. The animated adventure will be off just 36% from last weekend. Also posting an impressive hold from a big opening weekend is Interstellar, with $29.1 million—39% below its opening frame.
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November 9th, 2014
With studios cutting down on tentpole releases, and ever-more careful grooming of release schedules, it’s getting rarer to have a genuine head-to-head battle for top spot at the box office. But that’s exactly what we had this weekend, and, although both studios will rightly claim to be very happy with the outcome, execs at Disney will have the slightly bigger grins this Sunday. They are predicting a $56.2 million opening weekend for Big Hero 6, making it a clear winner over Interstellar, which Paramount says will post a round $50 million.
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November 5th, 2014
For the third weekend in a row, Birdman led the per theater chart. In fact, this week it was the only one in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,348 in 231 screens. At this point, the film has already earned some measure of mainstream success, while it still has room to grow.
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November 2nd, 2014
Halloween weekend will be fought to the finish at the box office, with newcomer Nightcrawler and horror flick Ouija neck and neck, based on Sunday’s projections. Open Road’s 3-day projected number for Nightcrawler is $10,909,000, which technically gives it the edge over Universal’s $10,900,240 prediction for Ouija, but Ouija as of this morning, so it will all come down to whether Nightcrawler can win Sunday by a large enough margin to steal the race at the end. The tracking we’re seeing suggests that Ouija will just squeak out a win, but it could still go either way.
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October 28th, 2014
Despite growing its theater count to 50, Birdman was able to remain in top spot on the per theater chart with a powerful average of $27,593. Next up was CitizenFour, which was really close behind with an average of $25,264 in five theaters. This is excellent for a documentary, but as a documentary, it's chances of expanding significantly are limited. Laggies will likely expand somewhat after opening with an average of $14,828, also in five theaters. It has a much more mainstream appeal, so it if does expand, it could do well. Then again, this is never an easy strategy and I'm sure the studio will be happy with a strong home market run. Force Majeure was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,655 in two theaters.
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October 26th, 2014
Teen horror movie Ouija will win this weekend at the box office with a solid $20 million debut and $7,000 theater average. With a budget reported at just $5 million, the movie is a sure-fire money maker for Universal, even with a shelf life of exactly eight days. By comparison, John Wick, which marks a return to form for Keanu Reeves, should have a longer run, based on its current reviews and word of mouth, but will have some ground to make up after opening with around $14 million.
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October 24th, 2014
Last weekend, Birdman opened with Oscar-worthy reviews and it wasn't the only film that was expected to be a hit at the box office. This weekend, there are no such films. CitizenFour and Force Majeure are both earning Oscar buzz, but one's a documentary and the other is a foreign-language film, so neither are likely to expand significantly. This leaves Laggies as the film with the loudest buzz, even if its reviews suggest it might not thrive in limited release.
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October 21st, 2014
Birdman debuted in first place on the Per Theater Chart with an amazing average of $106,099. This is the best per theater average since The Grand Budapest Hotel opened with just over $200,000 for its per theater average. It wasn't the only film in the $10,000 club, as Dear White People opened with an average of $31,633 in eleven theaters. The Tale of Princess Kaguya was surprisingly strong during its opening weekend earning an average of $18,305 in three theaters. God the Father earned $15,037 in one theater. The final film in the $10,000 club was Listen Up Philip, which earned an average of $11,642 in two theaters. Diplomacy might have made it in the $10,000 club if it opened on Friday. However, it opened on Wednesday earning $8,518 in one theater over the weekend for a total opening of $12,750.
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October 19th, 2014
Fury will top the box office chart this weekend with a solid, but unspectacular, $23.5 million, according to Sony’s Sunday morning estimate. Pre-weekend projections had the film closer to $30 million, and with an $80 million price tag, and Brad Pitt starring, the film is really underperforming at this point. By way of comparison, Gone Girl opened with $37.5 million three weeks ago. Fury will need really good legs, or a really strong performance overseas, to post a profit.
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October 17th, 2014
It's an excellent week for limited releases with several films earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. This includes a couple that are also earning really loud buzz. Of these, Birdman is probably going to win the weekend race on the Per Theater Chart, while Dear White People should also be a hit. Diplomacy, Housebound, The Tale of Princess Kaguya, and others also deserve to find audiences, but not all will do so for various reasons (wrong genre, opening in Video on Demand, etc.).
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