July 31st, 2019
Avengers: Endgame is coming out on Video on Demand and it is scaring away all of the competition. It is a really shallow week, but there are several contenders for Pick of the Week. The biggest first run Blu-ray release of the week is Long Shot and it is among the contenders. As is Bojack Horseman and The Good Place. However, in the end I went with The Thin Man on Blu-ray, because I really want the full series to come out sooner rather than later.
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May 14th, 2019
The two biggest hits of the weekend were not as potent as predicted, but Avengers: Endgame and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu both have reasons to celebrate. Endgame became only the fourth film to reach $700 million domestically, while Detective Pikachu nearly entered the top ten video game adaptations of all time after just its opening weekend. As for the other wide releases, The Hustle did fine and the less said about Poms and Tolkien the better. The overall box office 16% from last weekend hitting $168 million. However, this was 21% higher than the same weekend last year, which is clearly the more important figure, as 2019 continues to try and climb out of the hole it dug for itself. It is now behind last year by 8.7% or $370 million at $3.83 billion to $4.20 billion.
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May 7th, 2019
Avengers: Endgame didn’t do quite as well as expected over the The weekend, but it still managed the second best second weekend with $147.38 million. However, the number one film, The Force Awakens, was playing during the holidays, so Endgame has the record for best non-holiday second weekend. This wasn’t the only record Endgame set over the weekend. On the other hand, The Intruder was the only new release to top $10 million over the weekend, which resulted in a massive 50% box office decline from last weekend down to $199 million. A 50% week-over-week decline would be unusual most of the time, but this is what happens when you have a record-destroying weekend followed by a non-holiday weekend without any significant new releases. More importantly, this is still 17% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, but the gap has dropped significantly over the past two weeks and is now 9.8% or $390 million at $3.61 billion to $4.00 billion.
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May 5th, 2019
The weekend isn’t going as well as I had hoped. Avengers: Endgame managed $145.80 million during its second weekend of release, which would leave it just behind The Force Awakens for biggest second weekend of all time. However, this is from Disney and they underestimated last week’s opening by such a large margin that I’m not sure The Force Awakens’ record is safe. On the other hand, there’s no ambiguity about Endgame setting the record for fastest to $600 topping The Force Awakens’s previous record by two full days. The film’s running tally sits at $619.70 million after just ten days of release and I don’t think it is hyperbolic to say it will top $900 million given its start so far. In fact, it could remove The Force Awakens from the top spot on the all-time Domestic title by the time its done, if it turns out Disney was being too conservative with its estimates again this week.
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May 4th, 2019
Avengers: Endgame dominated the Friday box office with $40.64 million for the day. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $49.33 million during its second Friday of release; however that was Christmas Day, which is one of the best days of the year. Endgame should have better legs over the rest of the weekend and could close the gap by the end of Sunday. I’m not convinced that will happen, but it should still beat our $140 million prediction, so I’m sure Disney will be more than happy with this performance. Furthermore, the film topped $500 million in just its eighth day of release, beating The Force Awakens previous record of 10 days, and will get to $600 million by the end of the weekend, 2 days faster than Awakens reached that milestone.
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May 3rd, 2019
Despite earning the worst reviews, The Intruder had the best previews among the new releases last night. That said, it only managed $865,000. It will likely beat our prediction for the weekend as a whole, albeit by a small margin with just over $10 million. That would be a great start for a film that reportedly only cost $5 million to make.
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May 2nd, 2019
Avengers: Endgame looks to break more records this weekend. It is specifically taking aim at The Force Awakens for the biggest second weekend of all time. If it can break this record, then The Force Awakens’s all-time Domestic title is in serious trouble. There are also a trio of wide releases opening this week, but I don’t think they will be a major factor at the box office. Long Shot is clearly the best and I think it will do well for a Romantic Comedy. UglyDolls’ reviews are not pretty, but they shouldn’t hurt this family film too much. Finally there's, The Intruder, which is not only the smallest release, but it is also earning the worst reviews. This weekend last year, Avengers: Infinity War dominated the chart, with Overboard earning second place with just under $15 million.
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May 1st, 2019
April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall.
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February 8th, 2019
Animated musical adventure opens May 3 ... Full Movie Details.
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