August 29th, 2017
It’s one of those weeks that are deceptively busy. The biggest new release of the week is Wonder Woman, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand. The biggest overall release is the The Lion King franchise on separate Blu-ray releases, but it’s at least a double-dip on Blu-ray. I think a triple-dip on Blu-ray. If it weren’t for these circumstances, they would be clear Pick of the Week contenders. Without those two movies, the next best is... My Cousin Rachel on Blu-ray. Its reviews are not quite Pick of the Week level, but it is the best of what we've got.
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August 16th, 2017
Alien: Covenant is the biggest release on this week’s list, but the franchise is off its peak and has been for a long time. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are not a lot of them. If I were to stretch the definition, Food Wars: Season One is great, if you are into that subgenre of Anime. Descendants 2 is arguably better than the original, but the DVD isn’t going to really appeal to those outside the target audience. That leaves The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: 50th Anniversary Blu-ray as the clear winner for Pick of the Week.
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June 29th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight dominated the international box office chart earning $196.2 million in 40 markets, picking up first place in each of those markets. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, this is slightly ahead of Age of Extinction’s combined opening in these markets. Bad news, most of it came from China, where studios only get 25% of the box office, instead of an average 40% in other international markets. The Chinese debut was impressive, $127.24 million on 7,800 screens, including previews. It also did well in South Korea with $9.53 million on 1,727 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.87 million. It was nearly as potent in Russia with $8.45 million on 1,456 screens. On the other hand, its openings in the U.K. ($5.90 million in 577 theaters) and in Australia ($3.39 million on 539 screens) were actually worse than its opening here, given the relative size of the markets involved. The film has yet to open in several major markets, including France, where it opens this weekend, so it should remain active on the international chart for a while.
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June 14th, 2017
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The Mummy debuted in first place on the international chart with $140.76 million on 19,078 screens in 63 markets. The film’s biggest market was China, no surprise there. It earned $52.4 million on 7,364 screens, which is better than Wonder Woman’s opening there last weekend. The film did even better in South Korea, relatively speaking, with an opening weekend of $8.61 million on 1,254 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.80 million. This includes a record for opening day in that market of $6.6 million, while the total opening was the best for Universal. On the downside, the film struggled in the U.K. earning second place with $4.2 million in 563 theaters. That’s weaker than its performance here, relative to the size of the two markets. Furthermore, the film only has two major markets left to open in, France and Japan, while its reviews will likely really hurt its legs. It will earn enough worldwide to pay for its production budget, assuming the $125 million reports are accurate.
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June 7th, 2017
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Wonder Woman opened in first place on the international chart with $122.5 million in 55 markets for a global opening weekend of $225.8 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it opened in first place with $38.96 million. This is about $10 million less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with recently, but then again, that was a sequel, so it is not an entirely fair comparison. Should Wonder Woman have better legs there, then it could still hit $100 million in that market. Other big markets for the movie include South Korea, where it earned $6.40 million on 1,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.41 million. This is better than Suicide Squad managed in that market, but behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Brazil and Mexico were close behind with $8.3 million and $8.22 million respectively. This is better than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, but not as good as BvS or Suicide Squad. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in the U.K earning $8.00 million in 599 screens, which was still enough for first place. It only managed second place in Russia with $3.99 million on 1,194 screens. Overall, the studio should be happy with these results and I bet there’s a sequel already in early stages of development.
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June 6th, 2017
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The overall box office bounced back after a weak Memorial Day thanks to two critically acclaimed movies. Wonder Woman led the way with $103.25 million, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was way back with $23.85 million. Overall, the weekend box office pulled in $185 million, which is 31% more than last weekend. It is also 37% more than the same weekend last year. This helped 2017’s lead over 2016 grow by nearly a full percentage point to 3.5% at $4.69 billion to $4.52 billion.
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June 3rd, 2017
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As expected, Wonder Woman led the way on Friday; however, its box office was a little lower than I would have liked with $38.85 million. (I was expecting $42 million on Friday.) This still gives the film a slim shot at $100 million, although it will likely fall a little short. Fortunately, there are some positive signs we should focus on, including the reviews, which ticked up a point to 94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Meanwhile, the film earned a solid A from CinemaScore, which should also help its legs. It could still hit $100 million, if it does exceptionally well during matinees on Saturday. We will know this time tomorrow when the weekend estimates are released.
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June 2nd, 2017
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It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year.
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May 31st, 2017
Memorial Day long weekend wasn’t as potent as expected as both new releases struggled. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales led the way with $78.47 million over four days. This marks the third year in a row where no film released on Memorial Day long weekend earned at least $100 million over four days. I’ve heard some talk that this means it is losing its importance as a long weekend. However, I think the actual answer is much simpler, as it is also the third weekend in a row where no wide releases have earned overall positive reviews. I don’t think the box office power of Memorial Day has dropped since X-Men: Days of Future Past came out. I just think the quality of films has dropped since then. Speaking of lack of quality, Baywatch was DOA earning just $27.71 million over five days and unlike Dead Men Tell No Tales, it likely won’t do significantly better internationally. Despite both new releases struggling, the holiday helped the overall box office grow 14% from last weekend to $141 million. Unfortunately, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 still maintains its lead over 2016, but that lead as slipped to 2.6% or $110 million at $4.46 billion to $4.35 billion.
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May 28th, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is dominating proceedings at the box office this weekend, with Disney projecting an opening of $62.2 million for three days, and $76.6 million over the complete Memorial Day holiday weekend. As I’ve said a few times this year, any other studio would kill for numbers like those, but this marks the third straight decline in the franchise’s fortunes. Dead Man’s Chest had the best opening for any Pirates film, with $135.6 million in 2006; At World’s End did $114.7 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2007; and then On Stranger Tides delivered a $90.2-million debut, also over Memorial Day weekend in 2011. With this kind of start, Dead Men will struggle to deliver $200 million domestically, although its international performance will help make up the numbers.
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May 27th, 2017
As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned first place at the Friday box office. Unfortunately, it missed the low end of expectations with $23.40 million, putting it on pace for a $62 million three-day weekend and a $73 million total opening. The film’s reviews are just 32% positive, putting it in a tie with On Stranger Tides for worst in the franchise. On the other hand, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore compared to a B plus for the previous installment, so that should help its legs a little. That said, the film cost $230 million to make, so unless it is a monster hit at the international box office, there’s little hope the sequel teased in the end credits will happen.
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May 26th, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales will have no trouble earning first place at the weekend box office, not after earning $5.5 million in previews last night. This would have given it number one for the night, if the numbers weren’t rolled into its Friday debut. On Stranger Tides managed $4.7 million during its midnight shows, but it was truly a midnight show, rather than starting at 7 pm like Dead Men Tell No Tales did. This is 30% higher than Alien: Covenant managed last week, but well behind the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse managed this weekend last year. Dead Men Tell No Tales will need serious growth to match our previous prediction of $67 million / $82 million debut. On the positive side, it is a long weekend and that will undoubtedly help. On the negative side, its reviews are quite terrible.
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May 25th, 2017
It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the best long weekends at the box office all year. However, this year the two new releases are far from the best. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales has the worst reviews in the franchise and its domestic box office will likely be the same. Sadly, Baywatch’s reviews are even worse. That said, they should still finish one-two over the weekend, while Alien: Covenant and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be in a race for third place. It likely won’t be close. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass opened one-two during the weekend with results that are similar to what Dead Men Tell No Tales / Baywatch are expected to make. I don’t know if 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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May 18th, 2017
There are two wide releases coming out next week: Baywatch and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. It’s an easy choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest, not only because Dead Men Tell No Tales is expected to open much faster, but also because Baywatch is opening on Thursday. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest.
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May 1st, 2017
April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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December 8th, 2016
Summer comedy starring Dwayne Johnson, Zac Efron opens May 26 ... Full Movie Details.
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