This graph shows Tina Fey’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After four weeks of being the widest release in the land, Wonka will slide into the second-place spot this week as the $470-million worldwide earner makes way for newcomer, Mean Girls. The Willy Wonka origin story film topped the domestic box office chart on three out of four of it's weekends, taking a backseat only to studio sibling Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom when the latter opened at number one during Wonka’s second weekend on the big screen. Along with Mean Girls, three other wide releases make their debut this week, including a long-awaited arrival to North American cinemas.
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Last week’s box office winner, The Nun II has gained ground in theaters from its opening frame, adding 15 locations for a total of 3,743 theaters, finding itself as this week’s widest release. The horror sequel tallied up $32.6 million in its opening weekend and currently holds a six-day total of just over $40 million. That total brings The Conjuring franchise to a worldwide total of just over $2.2 billion from nine films, including its predecessor, The Nun, which delivered $363 million of that back in September of 2018. This week will see the debut of three new wide releases, including the latest in the mysteries of Hercule Poirot.
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There are several top-notch releases coming out this week, including a trio of Awards Season contenders: The Big Short, Brooklyn, and Carol. All three are Pick of the Week contenders. However, the winner of that title is Game of Thrones: Season Five on Blu-ray.
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March begins with three wide releases and there is a potential record-breaker in that list, sort of. Zootopia isn't going to challenge The Hunger Games for Biggest March Opening, but it has a good shot at topping The Lorax for biggest opening for an animated film in March. London Has Fallen needs to make close to $30 million this weekend, if it is to have any real shot at breaking even any time soon. This isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is just hoping to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Chappie with just $13.35 million. Zootopia will earn way more than that on opening night. It should be a great weekend for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison.
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It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely.
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August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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The Muppets was the first Muppet movie in more than a decade, but it was a big hit with critics and did very well in theaters for a live action family film. A sequel was inevitable, but as the opening song of Muppets Most Wanted, the sequel is rarely as good as the original. Is this the case here? Is it one of the rare exceptions? If not, is it still good enough to check out?
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2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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As expected, The Croods earned first place, but it didn't dominate as much as many thought it would, because Olympus Has Fallen did better than expected. The overall box office rose 29% from last weekend reaching $139 million. Unfortunately, again as expected, The Hunger Games earned more this weekend last year than the entire box office earned this year. The year-over-year decline was a massive 35%. That's stunning. That usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012 by a 13% margin at $2.06 billion to $2.36 billion. Given the films coming out later this year and the films that came out last year, I just don't see a pathway to victory for 2013.
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This is one of those weekends where it is really hard to get excited about the box office. That's not to say there's nothing opening that isn't either earning good reviews or has a solid shot at the box office, there are. However, this weekend last year is the weekend The Hunger Games debuted. No film opening this weekend will compete with that. The entire box office this year won't make as much as that one film made last year. 2013 is going to be crushed in the year-over-year comparison and it could be more than a little depressing. As for this year, The Croods should walk away with the number one ranking and might even make more than twice as much as the number two film, which will probably be Olympus Has Fallen. The last new release of the week is Admission, but it might not make the top five. In fact, Spring Breakers is expanding to a little more than 1,000 theaters, but still has a better shot at the top five than Admission has.
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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