This graph shows Bruce Willis’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s a rare scenario that a film becomes the widest release in its fourth week in theaters but that is just the case for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. Even as the film loses 26 locations this week, it is still available in 3,665 cinemas, which tops our list this week. The film logged in over $14 million in its latest weekend, good enough for second place, in between the two newcomers, RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ, and Godzilla Minus One, which earned $21.8 million and $11.42 million respectively. This week in wide arrivals, two new arrivals make their way into theaters a two classics come back to the big screen.
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There are some excellent VOD releases coming out this week, including Yes, God, Yes and The Truth. However, there are also some films that are not quite as stellar, but would still make great VOD rentals, like The Burnt Orange Heresy. Here’s a rundown of what’s new.
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Most of the major new releases on VOD are earning positive reviews this week. Of these, The Whistlers is the critical darling, but Fisherman’s Friends could find a larger audience. There’s also some strength in depth among the independent films and shows coming to a platform near you.
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There are only four films on this week’s VOD release list and only two of them are earning good reviews. Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always is the better of these two films and it is absolutely worth checking out. Military Wives is one of those feel-good films that could be really nice to watch right now, even if it isn’t a classic.
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December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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Awards Season is in full swing, so the moviegoers most likely to head out to see a limited release are preoccupied with the latest surprise / snub. This has resulted in a terrible week for limited releases. It’s so bad that if we stuck with our usual rule of needing 10 reviews to be listed here, there would only be a few movies. Even being more generous, there’s not a lot to talk about this week. The best movie is Lover For a Day, while Saturday Church is its only real competition.
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Usually, this time of year is terrible for the home market. However, this week, Kung Fu Panda 3 hits the home market. I'm still waiting on the screener, but its reviews are a step above most of its competition, so at the very least it is a contender for Pick of the Week. It's not the only contender, but there can only be one winner and this week it's Eye in the Sky on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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Red opened in the fall of 2010 and became a surprise hit. When you think of action films, you generally don't think of retirees. The combined age of the four actors who played the retired secrets agents was 250 years old when the movie came out. But because the film was something different, it won over critics and moviegoers. Needless to say, they started working on a sequel soon after. However, when Red 2 came out, it wasn't as successful at the box office or with critics. Is it really weaker? Is it so weak that it isn't worth checking out if you liked the first one?
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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The Die Hard franchise has been around for 25 years. The first Die Hard film cost less than $30 million to make, but earned $80 million. This is $150 million, if you take into inflation. The most recent installment was Live Free or Die Hard, which didn't quite live up to expectations. A lot of people thought that perhaps the franchise was running out of steam, or perhaps it was just a product of its times and it was no longer relevant today. Was A Good Day to Die Hard able to revitalize the franchise? Or is there something seriously wrong here?
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Lay the Favorite opened last November in limited release, but despite boasting an impressive cast and an Oscar nominated director, it never found an audience in theaters. It was also playing in Video on Demand, which usually kills a film's box office chances. Will it find a more receptive audience on the home market? Or was it destined to struggle no matter what?
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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President's Day weekend will end with a win and a solid opening for A Good Day to Die Hard, based on studio estimates released on Sunday, but it'll be a close run thing. Safe Haven was a predictable winner on Valentine's Day but has faded fast and is projected to earn $21.4 million Friday-Sunday for third place. Second place is going to be claimed by Identity Thief with about $23.4 million over three days, during which time it has steadily caught up with Die Hard, so much so that it has a good chance of winning the day on Monday. The Bruce Willis actioner will, however, get to claim the title for the weekend with a respectable $25 million for three days and close to $40 million in total by the end of Monday.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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It is a really, really busy week for limited releases. However, of the more than a dozen films on this week's list, only one of them is earning overwhelmingly positive reviews, Wagner and Me. That film is a documentary, so even if it does perform well during its opening weekend, it likely won't find any mainstream success. All of the rest are either earning too few reviews to have a Tomatometer Score, or have overall negative reviews. Combined with the previously released Awards Season hopefuls, and there's too much competition for such weak films.
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The Independent Spirit Awards has a special place in the Awards Season. The nominations are the unoffficial start of Awards Season, but the actual awards aren't given out until Oscar weekend, so they are the beginning at the end of Awards Season. They also help out a lot of limited releases that would otherwise not get enough buzz, although they are not so good at predicting Oscar wins. This year, two films tied for most nominations, Moonrise Kingdom and The Silver Linings Playbook, both of which earned five nominations. They weren't the only films to earn multiple nominations though.
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The Expendables cost $82 million, which is not an insignificant amount of money, especially for a mini-major like Lionsgate. However, the risk paid off when it became the distributor's biggest hit of all time. (That record has since been broken by The Hunger Games.) It was obvious that they would make a sequel, but is it any good? Granted, in my review, I called the original, "a pretty mindless action film that takes itself a little too seriously at times." So I'm not expecting a lot here. If the movie can provide mindless action like before, then I will assume it is worth checking out for fans. Can it deliver? Can it surpass expectations?
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I have seen nearly everything Wes Anderson has ever made and I've liked most of it. I was disappointed by The Darjeeling Limited, but lovedThe Fantastic Mr. Fox. His latest film is Moonrise Kingdom, a story of young love set in 1965 with an ensemble cast, including two newcomers in the central two roles. It became one of his biggest hits, but was it also one of his best?
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There are two wide releases coming out this week that should be in a relatively close race for first place, plus an also-ran that will mostly be forgotten. Last week I thought Looper would win the weekend over Hotel Transylvania; however, that's probably not going to happen. Looper is definitely the bettermovie, but Hotel Transylvania is opening in more theaters than expected, while Looper is opening in less than expected. Both should do decent business, at least compared to the rest of September's new releases. On the other hand, Won't Back Down will likely struggle just to reach the top five. There's one more new release with a shot at a spot in the top ten, Pitch Perfect. It's opening in more than 300 theaters, which is a risky proposition. If it does open in the top ten, it could expand wide next weekend. I don't think it is very likely, but I'll have more to say with the limited release report. Last year there were four wide releases, but none of them cracked $10 million. The number one film was Dolphin Tale at just under $13 million. If we don't top that this year, we are in a world of trouble.
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