October 16th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack this week and it is scaring away most of the competition. Fortunately, it is also an amazing movie and a Contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, as both Mamoru Hosoda Movie Collection (Blu-ray) and Whitney (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the race. However, in the end, I went with Ant-Man and the Wasp.
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July 30th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout was easily the biggest hit of the weekend earning more than the rest of the top five combined. Its opening weekend of $61.24 million was the best in the franchise, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the overall box office from dropping 9.3% from last weekend earning $156 million. This is 8.0% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the more important result. 2018 is now ahead of 2017 by a margin of 8.5% or $570 million at $7.23 billion to $6.66 billion.
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July 23rd, 2018
The Equalizer 2 was the surprise winner at the weekend box office chart with $36.01 million over the weekend, which put it just ahead of the $34.95 million earned by Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! The overall box office topped expectations with $171 million, up 2.7% from last week. This is 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year, but this is better than expected. Also, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by a sizable margin of $560 million / 8.8% at $6.98 billion to $6.42 billion. Again, if 2018 just maintains the raw dollar margin for the rest of the year, it will be a reason to celebrate.
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July 22nd, 2018
In a shocking turn of events, The Equalizer 2 overtook Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! over the weekend with $35.83 million. This is better than predicted and is better than the original managed. Its reviews are not great, but it earned an A from CinemaScore and it is aimed at a more mature target audience, so it should have better than average legs. We will have a better picture this time next week. Internationally, the film managed $3.3 million on 704 screens in 11 markets, including $2.2 million in Australia. The film first didn’t do great internationally, so while this is a 30% improvement, it is still nothing special.
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July 21st, 2018
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! had a stellar opening earning $14.28 million on Friday, which is enough to put it on pace for nearly $40 million opening. That’s on the very high end of expectations and more than enough to be considered a hit. With strong reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore, the film should have good legs. It won’t have as good legs as the original did, but $100 million is an easy goal after this opening.
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July 20th, 2018
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! pulled in $3.4 million during its previews on Thursday, which is a figure that is nearly impossible to judge. There simply are not enough live-action musicals released to compare to. The vast majority if those that do come out come out at Christmas time, so it is a poor comparison. Rock of Ages is the closest both in terms of style (Both films are Jukebox Musicals.) and release dates, but that film came out before midnight shows became standard. I’ve seen some compare it to Pitch Perfect 2, but that was a sequel and that messes with the comparisons. That said, $3.4 million is still a good amount. The reviews suggest good legs and a $35 million opening is likely, which is a little better than predicted, by a little bit.
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July 19th, 2018
At the beginning of the month, I didn’t have relatively high hopes for this weekend; I thought it could put up a fight in the year-over-year comparison, but would ultimately lose. That has changed and not for the better. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is still widely expected to earn first place over the weekend, but it might not do well enough to finish with $100 million domestically. The Equalizer 2 won’t match its predecessor, not with the amount of action films struggling in theaters. Finally, Unfriended: Dark Web is opening in barely more than 1,500 theaters and it is going nowhere. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation should have a good hold, but I’m not sure about any of the rest. This weekend last year, Dunkirk opened with just over $50 million and five other films earned $10 million or more over the weekend. There’s no way 2018 will match that. I don’t even think it will be close.
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July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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