September 30th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction leads the pack of new releases this week, at least in terms of sales potential. It is by far not the best movie on this week's list, but it does appear to have to scared away a lot of the competition. Fortunately, the next best selling new release is Chef on Blu-ray Combo Pack, which is a clear contender for Pick of the Week. The main competitor for this title is Once Upon a Time in America on Blu-ray, but I'm going with Chef.
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September 30th, 2014
Jon Favreau's career behind the camera started out with smaller movies. He co-wrote Swingers and wrote and directed Made. However, recently he has directed a number of major movies. He was the one behind the camera for the first two Iron Man movies, for instance, and the average budget for his three most recent films he directed is close to $175 million. With his latest film, Chef, he went the opposite direction and created a much, much smaller film. Was he able to still maintain his usual high level of quality? Or does he need the spectacle to make a compelling movie?
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September 29th, 2014
If you look at our list of franchises, none have made more money in as few installments as Transformers has earned. On the other hand, if you look at the top ten franchises, none of them have earned as much critical scorn as the Transformers films have earned. Only the first one managed to come close to overall positive reviews. Depending on who you talk to, the most recent installment, Transformers: Age of Extinction, has been called the best of the sequels or the worst of the sequels. Which camp do I fall under?
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August 20th, 2014
How to Train Your Dragon 2 debuted in first place in China with $26.32 million. This helped the film earn first place on the international chart with $37.7 million in 28 markets for totals of $366.0 million internationally and $537.2 million worldwide. The film is already ahead of its predecessor internationally and worldwide, so the studio should be happy, even if it didn't earn as much domestically.
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August 13th, 2014
Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first place with $47.1 million in 50 markets over the weekend for a total of $138.8 million internationally and $315.3 million worldwide after just two weeks of release. It is already ahead of the lifetime total of The Incredible Hulk and should pass another Avengers film or two by this time next week. The film finished in first place in Australia with $6.08 million on 586 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.24 million. The film was pushed into second place in Russia with $6.01 million on 2,097 screens over the weekend for a total of $24.32 million after two weeks of release. It had a very similar result in the U.K. with the film landing in second place with $5.59 million on 561 screens over the weekend for a total of $23.24 million.
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August 6th, 2014
Guardians of the Galaxy opened in first place internationally with $67.4 million in 42 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by Russia with $12.90 million on 2,097 screens and the U.K. with $10.70 million on 554 screens. It also earned first place in Brazil with $5.27 million on 472 screens. It wasn't as strong in South Korea with $3.83 million on 575 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.78 million. There was a massive local release in that market, so that partially explains that result. The film also opened in second place in Australia with $2.15 million on 244 screens, but this was just the film's previews.
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July 30th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes rose to first place on the international chart with $54.8 million on 12,247 screens in 61 markets for a total of $186.7 million after three weeks of release. Worldwide, the film's running tally rose to $359.2 million, which is still about $120 million away from topping the previous installment, but at this pace, it is practically inevitable that it will get there. This week, the film earned first place in Brazil with $6.86 million on 453 screens for a total opening of $9.10 million, or a two-week total of $9.10 million, depending on what sources you look at. Likewise, it either opened in first place in Mexico, or rose to first place in Mexico earning $6.90 million on 2,392 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.99 million. The film remained in first place in the U.K. with $6.37 million on 574 screens for a two-week total of $28.90 million.
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July 24th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction continues its lock on top spot earning $84.6 million in 58 markets for totals of $662.6 million internationally and $889.6 million worldwide. It is about a week away from becoming the first film released in 2014 to hit the $1 billion mark and it will top Dark of the Moon's international numbers in the process. This weekend, the film opened in first place in Germany with $11.16 million on 645 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.84 million. It also pulled in first place in France with $8.91 million on 890 screens. It earned first place in Italy with $3.87 million on 850 screens over the weekend for a total of $5.24 million. Its "biggest" opening of the weekend was in Brazil where it made $16.13 million, but that was with previews. Over the weekend it made $5.71 million on 504 screens. That's a lot of previews. The film's biggest market to date is China, where it has pulled in $306.28 million, including $26.08 million over the past week. However, it has been knocked out of top spot by a local hit.
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July 22nd, 2014
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained on top of the box office chart with a healthy lead over The Purge: Anarchy. Unfortunately, the other two wide releases, Planes: Fire and Rescue and Sex Tape were anything but healthy and that led to a weakening box office. It fell less than 1% from last weekend to $149 million. This was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is now 5.6% or $340 million behind last year's pace at $5.79 billion to $6.13 billion. I think with summer wrapping up, it is close to the time to panic.
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July 17th, 2014
There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week looking to dethrone Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. The Purge: Anarchy is the most likely film to come out on top, but the original didn't win over many moviegoers. It opened big, but collapsed very quickly after that. Planes didn't perform much better with moviegoers, but there hasn't been an animated family film released wide since How to Train Your Dragon 2, so Planes: Fire and Rescue could benefit from the lack of competition. Sex Tape is the only non-sequel opening wide this week and that could help it do well. Or the fact that it is not based on a previous movie could hurt it. There is one last film that might reach the top ten, Persecuted, which is opening in 700 theaters. It would only need a per theater average of just over $4,000 to reach the top ten, which is doable. This year, we should have four films that earn more than $20 million. Last year there were only three. However, last year, The Conjuring earned more than $40 million, a milestone no film this year will reach, while seven films earned more than $10 million. This year there will be only four films earning more than $10 million. Again, it looks like 2014 is going to get crushed at the box office.
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July 16th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $100.3 million in 50 markets for totals of $543.5 million internationally and $752.3 million worldwide. This makes is the biggest worldwide hit of the year so far. Granted, half of the film's international total came from China where it has made $279.75 million so far, including $56.36 million this past week, and the studio gets a very small share of the box office revenue from that market. As for new markets, the film debuted in first place in the U.K. with $20.11 million on 533 screens, including previews. This is the biggest opening of the year in that market so far. The film also did well in Mexico with $8.26 million on 3,131 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.84 million.
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July 14th, 2014
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes earned first place and it finished on the high end of reasonable expectations. Unfortunately, it crushed the competition earning more than four times more than the second place film, Transformers: Age of Extinction. It made almost as much as the rest of the box office combined made, so the overall box office was still soft for this time of year at just $149 million. Granted, this is 13% higher than last weekend, but more troublesome, it was 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is now more than $200 million lower than 2013's pace at $5.57 billion to $5.78 billion.
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July 13th, 2014
In the midst of a disappointing Summer for Hollywood, the arrival of an unabashed success is welcome news indeed, and that’s what we have this weekend, with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes delivering an excellent $73 million opening weekend, well ahead of early industry expectations. The success of the film is most likely down to two factors: first, its reviews have been excellent, and, second, its storyline is sufficiently interesting to draw in people who aren’t excited by the thought of yet another super hero/monster movie. After the success of Maleficent and the failure of Edge of Tomorrow, films that strive to be a bit different are now scoring 2 out of 3 this Summer; films that are the product of formulas and marketing departments haven’t produced a single out-and-out hit. If the studios could get the message in the that, we really would see the dawn of something.
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July 10th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the only new wide release of the week and since last week's new releases underperformed, it will dominate the box office this weekend. In fact, it will dominate the box office, even if it barely managed to live up to its predecessor. Transformers: Age of Extinction will be well back with less than $20 million, while Tammy might not reach $10 million. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were two films that earned more than $40 million (Despicable Me 2 and Grown Ups 2) and a total of six films earned $10 million or more. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 9th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $95.8 million in 37 markets over the weekend for totals of $400.9 million internationally and $576.3 million worldwide. Its best market remains China, where it added $120.61 million for the full week giving it a total of $222.74 million after two. These numbers are important for two reasons. Firstly, revised totals in China put the film's opening there ahead of its debut in North America. Stunning. Secondly, the film is already ahead of Avatar's final figure in that market. Granted, it's barely above Avatar's pace, as that film pulled in $221.9 million after ten days of release, but that is still great news. It held up better than most films do in South Korea earning $8.05 million on 1,096 screens over the weekend for a total of $34.62 million. In Russia, the film added $7.04 million on 2,171 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.38 million after two. The last major market was Australia, where it pulled in $4.54 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $17.32 million.
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July 8th, 2014
There were no films in the $10,000 club on the per theater chart this weekend. The film that came the closest was Transformers: Age of Extinction, which earned an average of $8,753 in more than 4,000 theaters. The best limited release was Code Black, which earned $7,978 in one theater. The best new release was Tammy with an average of $6,227 in more than 3,000 theaters. Finally, the best new limited release was Life Itself, which managed an average of $5,713 in 23 theaters.
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July 7th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction won the race to the top of the box office chart and did so with ease. However, that film, and practically every film in the top five, failed to live up to expectations. Tammy still took second place with ease, but it was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the Independence Day long weekend. Overall, the box office pulled in $132 million over the weekend, which is 27% less than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 42% lower this year. Ouch. To put this into perspective, even if you take out Despicable Me 2 from last year's box office, 2014 would have still failed to match 2013's weekend numbers. Year-to-date, 2014 is now $130 million or 2.4% below 2013's pace at $5.35 billion to $5.48 billion. It is still too early to panic, but if things don't turn around soon, the panic button will be pushed.
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July 6th, 2014
After opening around the $100 million mark last weekend, Transformers: Age of Extinction was always the odds-on favorite to win this weekend, and even a 64% fall will be enough to keep it top with a projected $36.4 million for the Friday–Sunday period. That’s well ahead of Tammy, which will post a respectable $21.2 million for the three-day weekend and almost $33 million in total by the end of Sunday. That’s plenty for a film that cost $20 million to make.
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July 3rd, 2014
There are three wide releases and a wide expansion this week all hoping to take advantage if the Independence Day long weekend. (There was to be one more wide expansion, but Begin Again is expanding to less than 200 theaters.) Tammy is the biggest of these wide releases and it is the latest Melissa McCarthy vehicle and might be a surprise $100 million hit. Deliver Us From Evil and Earth to Echo were in a close battle for third place on Wednesday, but I think their futures will be quite different. Finally, America: Imagine a World Without Her is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. This isn't enough to compete with the new releases, but it could compete for a spot in the top ten. While there are a lot of new releases, Transformers: Age of Extinction will win the race for top spot in the box office chart, unless something surprising happens. The only thing more surprising than Age of Extinction getting knocked out of top spot would be if the overall box office was stronger that the same weekend last year when Despicable Me 2 opened with more than $80 million during the three-day weekend.
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July 2nd, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction earned top spot on the international chart with $201.3 million on 10,015 screens in 37 markets. This includes a record $99.81 million opening in China, which is basically a rounding error away from its North American debut. It also broke the record in Russia with $21.23 million on 2,171 screens. Its opening in South Korea was nearly identical with $15.88 million on 1,597 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $21.98 million. The final major market of the weekend was Australia, where it pulled in $8.30 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.56 million. The film likely cost about $300 million to make and advertise, so it still needs work to break even, but this is an amazing start.
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July 1st, 2014
The winner of our LEGO My Prize contest was determined and it is...
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July 1st, 2014
Despite there being a $100 million hit on the box office this weekend, Begin Again still led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $26,813 in five theaters. This bodes well for its expansion on Wednesday. The overall number one film, Transformers: Age of Extinction, was next with an average of $23,633 in more than 4,000 theaters. Snowpiercer was the third film to earn a per theater average over $20,000 with an average of $20,266 in eight theaters. America: Imagine a World Without Her was next with an average of $12,869 million in three theaters. Yves Saint Laurent was a surprise entry in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,104 in two theaters. It managed this despite earning weak reviews and opening on the Wednesday. The final film in the $10,000 club was Code Black, which climbed into the $10,000 club during its second weekend of release with $10,953 in two theaters. It is rare for a documentary to do this well, and it is even rarer for a film to see its per theater average grow.
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June 30th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction easily won the race for the top of the box office chart and became the first film released in 2014 to earn more than $100 million during its opening weekend. Granted, it barely made it, but we will take it. This helped the overall box office climb by 20% to $190 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 8% lower than the same weekend last year when Monsters University repeated at the box office champion. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $5.11 billion, which is 0.3% below 2013's pace of $5.13 billion. This is still close enough that we shouldn't panic, but the trajectory is going in the wrong direction.
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June 29th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction is set to deliver the year’s biggest weekend, as it performs to sell-out crowds across the country. Paramount is projecting a weekend total of $100 million as of Sunday morning, which honestly seems like a conveniently round number. Perhaps the studio is playing it safe, and the actual weekend number will be a few million over $100 million? Or maybe they’re hoping that announcing a $100 million weekend will help encourage people to theaters today and push the film over the line? Based on the numbers we’re seeing, it looks more like the latter, and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if Age of Extinction will actually be the first $100 million opener of the year. At the end of the day, it probably doesn’t matter a huge amount: $99 million versus $101 million is a rounding error, and the film has topped $200 million internationally this weekend, which is a great start towards repaying its reported $210 million production budget.
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June 26th, 2014
There is only one wide release of the week, but it is a potential monster hit. It is also potentially the last in a very profitable franchise. Transformers: Age of Extinction is the fourth film in the Transformers franchise, a franchise that has averaged more than $350 million at the box office. However, they have also averaged well below 50% positive reviews and the poor critical response could finally be taking its toll. It will still crush the competition this weekend, but it likely won't live up to past installments in the franchise. It will also beat last year's new releases and more than double the first place film; however that might not be enough to save 2014. Last year there were five films that pulled in $20 million or more. This year there will be only one. In fact, there will be only four films that pull in $10 million or more.
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June 20th, 2014
There's only one wide release next weekend, Transformers: Age of Extinction, so it is clearly the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Transformers: Age of Extinction.
Interestingly, Transformers: Age of Extinction will likely be the biggest hit of the year so far, while the current leader, The LEGO Movie, is featured as the prize. You can upload six-second clips to YouTube by using this App.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday),
regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of
The LEGO Movie on
Blu-ray Combo Pack
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2014
It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
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