December 14th, 2015
It is a strange week on the home market, as there are four first-run releases coming out, all of which were sequels. That's a lot. However, only one of them wasn't a box office disappointment, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation. Additionally, there's very little depth here. On the plus side, it did give me an excuse to talk about some good releases that might otherwise have fallen between the cracks, like the Top Spin DVD. That said, the Rogue Nation Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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November 30th, 2015
By the time these releases go on sale, Black Friday and even Cyber Monday will be over. It's not a good time to release a DVD or Blu-ray just after a major sale has ended. People tend to not have a lot of money left to spend, so, unsurprisingly, there are no top-tier releases this week. However, there are lots of limited releases and specialty items that are worth checking out. (Including four releases where I'm still waiting for screeners.) There are a number of Pick of the Week contenders, but I'm going with Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXIV. And while you are buying that DVD, throw a few bucks to the Kickstarter. I would love to see a full 12-episode season.
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September 10th, 2015
Terminator: Genisys remained in first place on the international chart, but with only $11.5 million in 8 markets. This lifted its international total to $346.3 million, while it now has $435.9 million worldwide. This helped the film become the second biggest hit in the franchise, assuming you don't take inflation into account. In China, the film managed $26.67 million, but that was for the full week, giving the film a total of $111.92 million after 15 days of release.
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September 3rd, 2015
Terminator Genisys remained in first place with $23.6 million in 26 markets over the weekend for totals of $320.1 million internationally and $409.5 million worldwide. In China, the film pulled in $23.4 million over the weekend for an eight-day total of $85.15 million in that market. It is going to hit the century mark in that market, while its overall worldwide number is high enough to break even.
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July 23rd, 2015
It is a special week on the international chart, as we have an international film in first place. Monster Hunt earned first place in China with an estimated $72 million over the weekend and a total opening of $107.58 million. (This includes less than $1 million in early previews.) This movie is a romantic comedy, of sorts, set in a world of CGI monsters. This is the kind of film that could have appeal in many markets outside of the usual markets Chinese films play in. Additionally, this is the kind of opening that will make distributors here interested in obtaining the rights. It is too soon to tell if it will have a global run, but it will be worth keeping an eye on.
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July 15th, 2015
Matching its stellar domestic debut, Minions rose to first place with $130.7 million on 9,606 screens in 56 markets at the international box office at the weekend for totals of $287.77 million internationally and $403.49 million worldwide. The film debuted in 30 new markets, earned first place in all of them, and broke the record for the biggest animated opening in 28 of them. This includes Russia, where it earned $15.12 million on 1,209 screens, which is the biggest opening in that market, animated or otherwise. Its biggest opening was in Mexico, where the film earned $15.72 million on 692 screens over the weekend. Meanwhile, it earned first place in France with a total opening of $12 million on 868 screens. It remains above Despicable Me 2's pace and this puts it on track to reach $1 billion worldwide.
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July 9th, 2015
Terminator: Genisys expanded its market count to 47 over the weekend, which allowed it to rise to first place with $74.0 million for a two-week total of $85.5 million internationally. Its biggest new market was Russia, where it dominated with $11.17 million on 2,192 screens over the weekend. South Korea was close behind with $9.24 million on 1,113 screens for a total opening of $11.06 million. The film earned first place in Mexico with $4.73 million on 1,307 for a total opening of $6.18 million. It only managed second place in Brazil with $3.9 million on 1,012. In all four markets, the film set records for the franchise. It wasn't as lucky in the U.K., where it opened in second place with $5.83 million in 536 theaters. That's about on par with its opening here in the US. The goal for the film is to earn over $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide. If it can get there, then the film will likely break even, eventually. On the other hand, "breaking even" isn't enough to justify continuing the reboot trilogy.
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July 6th, 2015
It was not a good weekend for new releases, as the top two spots went to holdovers. Fortunately, Inside Out earned first place over Jurassic World, because I had no idea what I was going to do for an image this time around. (That's not true. I was going to look for pictures of corgis dressed as dinosaurs.) Neither Terminator: Genisys or Magic Mike XXL matched expectations. At least Terminator: Genisys came close. Overall, the box office plummeted 26% from last weekend to just $135 million. Granted, that's still 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year, but boy have we come down from the highs we saw just a few weeks ago. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $5.62 billion, which is 6.0% above 2014's pace of $5.31 million. 2015 would really need to sink for a number of weeks before that lead was in trouble, but after this week, that scenario is a little more likely.
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July 3rd, 2015
If one of the new releases doesn't earn top spot this weekend, then the box office is in trouble. Jurassic World has been in first place for three weeks in a row and even last week it only won because the new release, Ted 2, missed expectations. If it or Inside Out win this weekend, it will be because Terminator: Genisys and Magic Mike XXL are both struggling. Fortunately, the two films topped the chart on Wednesday during their opening day, but not by enough to ensure they come out on top over the full weekend. It could be a very close race for first place. This weekend last year was led by Transformers: Age of Extinction with $37 million, while Tammy was second with an opening of $21.58 million over the three-day weekend and $33.51 million over five days. The overall box office take was just $133 million last year, while the top five could top that this year. 2015 should have no trouble coming out on top in the year-over-year competition.
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July 2nd, 2015
(As I warned previously, we've run out of images for Jurassic World, so we are down to Picture Unrelated. And no, I will not explain the context of the image. I will say the TV show it comes from is surprisingly good.)
Jurassic World completed a hat-trick at the weekend by earning first place with $82.5 million in 67 markets for totals of $737.5 million internationally and $1.238 billion worldwide. The film entered the top ten on the all-time worldwide box office chart over the weekend and has already moved into seventh place. Its biggest single market was China, where it made $38.07 million over the full week for a total of $206.57 million after three weekends. Hopefully this is the last weekend the film spends in top spot, as new releases finally rise to overtake it. If it is still in first place next week, it will be a sign that the box office is slowing down.
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July 2nd, 2015
The winners of our Lather Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ted 2 opening weekend were...
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June 30th, 2015
As expected, there was a race for the top spot on the box office chart over the weekend; however, it was only a two-way race. Jurassic World and Inside Out both earned more than $50 million over the weekend and were in a relatively tight race for first place. On the other hand, Ted 2 struggled somewhat in third. To be fair, it still made enough to become a hit, but not enough to justify a third installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, Max did fine, assuming it didn't cost more than reported. Overall, the box office fell 25% from last weekend, but it still earned $184 million, which is 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 5.1% at $5.37 billion to $5.11 billion. This is a great turnaround for a year that looked like it was going to drop below last year's pace.
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June 28th, 2015
After losing for the second Friday running on the daily chart to Inside Out, Jurassic World is projected to cling on to top spot for the weekend as a whole, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. The official projections are $54.2 million for Jurassic World and $52.1 million for Inside Out, although the numbers we’re seeing suggest it will be even closer. Inside Out has a shot at top spot, although Jurassic World is running the favorite at this point. Either way, it’s a great weekend for both films, and a disappointing one for Ted 2, which will finish third with about $33 million.
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June 27th, 2015
Inside Out led the way on Friday with $14.99 million. This was 56% lower than the film’s opening Friday, but that’s a better decline than most movies deal with during this point in their run. By comparison, Monsters University fell 53% on Friday on its way to a 45% weekend-to-weekend decline, while Brave fell 58% Friday-over-Friday on its way to a 49% decline. If we use these two films as guides, Inside Out will drop about 47% to $48 million. I think its superior reviews will help it reach $50 million, but it could be close.
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June 26th, 2015
It’s the final weekend of June and there are two wide releases hoping to grab some cash before Independence Day Long Weekend. Ted 2 is a sequel to an amazingly popular R-rated comedy. Unfortunately, we’ve seen too many times that sequels to comedies rarely live up to to their predecessors. The other wide release is Max, which is being called “earnest,” which is both a compliment and an insult. Regardless, it likely won’t be a significant player at the box office this weekend. On the other hand, both Jurassic World and Inside Out have a legitimate shot at first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Transformers: Age of Extinction, which earned just over $100 million. No film will match that figure this weekend. On the other hand, the second place film last year was 22 Jump Street, which earned $15.84 million. 2015 won’t lead the way at the top of the chart, but it certainly has better depth than 2014 had and should come out on top of the year-over-year competition.
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June 19th, 2015
Next weekend, Ted 2 will top Max, the only other wide release of the week. Because of that, Ted 2 is the only real choice target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ted 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize featuring a soap opera TV on DVD release: La Gata on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize also featuring a TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize featuring a TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2015
May turned out to be softer than anticipated with The Avengers: Age of Ultron missing expectations by about $100 million. Additionally, only Pitch Perfect 2 really topped expectations. May 2015 kept pace with May of 2014, more or less. June doesn't have any films as strong as Age of Ultron, but there are two films that should have no trouble getting to $200 million. Those two films are Jurassic World and Inside Out and I'm not sure which one will turn out to be the biggest hit of the month. Last June, the biggest hit was Transformers: Age of Extinction, but both Jurassic World and Inside Out should top that film, albeit by small margins. On the other hand, last June had four other films that reached $100 million, while this time around only Spy! and Ted 2 have a real shot at that milestone. 2015 is stronger at the top, but has weaker depth. It will be interesting to see if 2015 will keep pace with 2014 over the course of the full month.
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