February 24th, 2019
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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February 24th, 2019
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It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning.
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February 21st, 2019
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We end with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. I don’t know who’s going to win. I think I know who the favorite is, but there are five films here that could win and I wouldn’t really be surprised.
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February 20th, 2019
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The fall smash hits and the Oscar contenders are starting to come out in full force, making it a great time on the home market. This week, we have one of the biggest hits of the fall, A Star is Born; one of the best movies of the year, Can You Ever Forgive Me?; and the Anime that arguably solidified Moe as powerhouse genre, K-ON: Complete Collection Premium Box Set. Of the three, I like K-ON the most, but I admit that price will scare away a lot of people, so Can You Ever Forgive Me? is the better choice for Pick of the Week.
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February 19th, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay, which is not among the most competitive categories, but it isn’t inconceivable that there will be an upset.
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February 14th, 2019
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, ending with Best Lead Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite without an obvious runner up.
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February 14th, 2019
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actor category, there is a favorite here, but an upset wouldn’t be that shocking.
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February 12th, 2019
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. In this category, there is a favorite, but an upset isn’t out of the question.
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February 11th, 2019
The BAFTA winners were announced and The Favorite led the way with 7 wins. Like I mentioned before, understandably, the BAFTAs tend to favor British films and this can lessen their ability to predict Oscar winners and The Favorite is such a British Film that they managed to spell the word correctly. That doesn’t mean there are no lessons we can learn from these results.
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January 23rd, 2019
The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
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January 12th, 2019
The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here.
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January 10th, 2019
The Writers Guild of America has a lot of categories, as they hand out nearly 30 awards. However, only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises. There are some clear patterns emerging, but also some surprising results.
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January 9th, 2019
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Directors Guild of America announced their theatrical nominations this week and we are starting to see some real patterns emerge and I think the Oscar picture is getting clearer.
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January 7th, 2019
The Golden Globes were the first major Awards Season ceremony this year handing out the hardware on Sunday night. Are last night’s events a strong indicator for the Oscars? I hope not! Certainly not in all categories, as there were some puzzling results last night.
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January 4th, 2019
The Producers Guild of America announced their nominations in the theatrical categories today and there are some trends building. However, there are also some questions generated after these nominations were announced.
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December 30th, 2018
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It has been an even more predictable weekend than expected, as every film in the top five finished in the same order as last weekend. This includes Aquaman topping the chart with an estimated $51.55 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $188.79 million. It will cross $200 million shortly and overtake A Star is Born as Warner Bros.’ biggest domestic hit of the year. Internationally, the film added $85.4 million this weekend to push its global running tally to just shy of $750 million at $748.8 million. It is already ahead of Man of Steel and Suicide Squad on the DCEU chart and should soon step into first place.
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December 29th, 2018
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The Friday box office estimates are almost exactly as predicted, with most films out-pacing expectations by a small amount. At least as far as the top five is concerned. The lower films struggled more. For example, Aquaman led the way with $17.1 million putting it on pace for $52 million over the weekend. The film will become Warner Bros.’ second film released in 2018 to get to the $200 million mark (A Star is Born quietly got there before Christmas.) but it might have to wait till the new year to get there. Internationally, the film has already cracked $500 million with a running tally of $511.8 million as of the end of business on Friday.
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December 12th, 2018
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. There’s not a lot of surprises on this week’s list. A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, while The Favourite was right behind with three.
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November 12th, 2018
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The weekend box office had a few success stories and a couple of misses. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch was one of the success stories with $67.57 million, which matches predictions perfectly. The other two new wide releases were less successful. Overlord did okay, but it will need a lot of help to break even any time soon. On the other hand, The Girl in the Spider’s Web likely won’t break even. The overall box office rose 15% from last weekend hitting $167 million. This is 11% more from the same weekend last year. I really wasn’t expecting 2018’s losing streak to end after just one weekend. This is great news. 2018’s lead over 2017 is practically the same as it was last weekend at $1.01 billion or 11% at $9.95 billion to $8.94 billion.
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November 11th, 2018
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The Weekend box office is on par with expectations, for the most part. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is dominating the box office chart with an estimated $66.0 million debut. This isn’t the record for biggest November weekend for an animated film, but it is reasonably close. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest reasonably long legs at the box office. In fact, with the holidays coming up, it has an outside chance at $200 million. Internationally, its start is a little more muted at $12.7 million in 23 markets, including $6.53 in 559 theaters in the U.K. That’s equivalent to a $35 million opening here, given the relative size of the two markets.
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November 7th, 2018
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Bohemian Rhapsody rose to first place with $72.5 million in 64 markets for an early international total of $91.7 million. This week it opened in first place in both Mexico ($5.33 million) and Australia ($4.87 million). On the other hand, it only earned second place during its debut in South Korea with $4.40 million on 936 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.65 million. The film only fell 40% during its second weekend in the U.K. earning $7.56 million in 681 theaters for a two-week total of $26.88 million.
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November 4th, 2018
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Fox is projecting a $50 million opening for Bohemian Rhapsody over the weekend. When I see a studio estimate a number like that, I always assume they overestimated, and not just because it topped predictions, because a “$50 million opening weekend” sounds a lot better than a “$49 million opening weekend” and getting that one day of extra hype could help its box office chances. It would require a 2.71 internal multiplier to get there, which would be a little high for a film like this. Its reviews are good, but not great, while audience scores are better at 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak and an A from CinemaScore.
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November 3rd, 2018
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Bohemian Rhapsody dominated the Friday box office chart with $18.4 million. This is better than our prediction, but not quite as good as some were expecting after Thursday’s previews. Its reviews are good, but not great, while it earned an A from CinemaScore and a 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak, so audiences clearly like the film more than critics did. The film could come close to $50 million over the weekend, but it probably won’t quite get there.
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November 2nd, 2018
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Bohemian Rhapsody started its domestic run with $3.9 million in previews, which is in line with our prediction, for the most part. Compared to A Star is Born, it is better or worse, depending on how you look at things. A Star is Born had three days of previews earning $4.5 million in total, but if you only look at Thursday night, its previews were $3.2 million. Had the film only had one day of previews, it would have earned somewhere in-between those two results. Additionally, Bohemian Rhapsody’s reviews are weaker than A Star is Born’s reviews are and its target demographic is more likely to rush out opening night, so its legs won’t be as long. That said, it has an excellent chance at earning more than our $36 million prediction over the full weekend.
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November 1st, 2018
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November is the start of the holiday blockbuster season and practically every week from now until after Christmas is an excellent weekend to release a film. (The weekend after Thanksgiving is the only real exception.) This year, things don’t get off to a tremendously fast start, as there are no monster hits. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody could be a $100 million hit domestically. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and a lot of direct competition from bigger family films coming out this month. Finally, Nobody’s Fool is the first Tyler Perry movie not released by Lionsgate. It is not being heavily advertised as a Tyler Perry movie either. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. No film opening this year will match that. All three films combined won’t match that. 2018's winning streak will end.
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October 31st, 2018
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Halloween rose from fifth to first with $26.0 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $46.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was Germany, where it earned first place with $3.41 million on 513 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fifth place in France with $2.37 million on 316 screens. Its Australian debut was in-between those two results at second place and $1.99 million on 264 screens. It’s best holdover was in Mexico, where it earned first place with $2.34 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.39 million. Like I mentioned last week, this film isn’t doing as well internationally as it is domestically, but it has done so well domestically that it will break even before taking its international numbers into consideration.
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October 30th, 2018
The month of October ends on a soft note with only one of the new releases we talked about in our prediction reached the top ten over the weekend. And even that film, Hunter Killer, didn’t quite reach our low expectations. Fortunately, Halloween came within a rounding error of predictions with $31.42 million and the overall box office wasn’t too bad at $104 million. Granted, this is 37% lower than last weekend, but this is to be expected for Halloween weekend. More importantly, the overall box office was 37% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has pulled in $9.55 billion, putting it ahead of 2017’s running tally of $8.45 billion. At first glance, this looks like 2018 has a $1 billion lead, but it was actually $999 million, according to our numbers. It will certainly get there by the end of business on Monday. This is a fantastic result, but a short-lived one, as November and December won’t be able to maintain this lead.
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October 28th, 2018
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Halloween’s weekend estimates are matching our predictions perfectly with $32.05 million. If this number holds, it will have $126.70 million after just ten days of release. Internationally, it is estimated to earn $25.6 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $45.6 million. It won’t match its domestic run internationally, but it doesn’t have to do be a financial success. In fact, since the film only cost $10 million to make, if it had just $45.6 million worldwide at this point, it would still have a chance of breaking even, eventually.
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October 27th, 2018
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As expected, Halloween earned first place on Friday. It was a little weaker than expected at $10.02 million and Universal’s estimate for the weekend is $30.05 million, compared to our prediction of $33 million. A $30 million sophomore stint is still fantastic for a film that cost just $10 million to make; in fact, it cracked $100 million domestically on Friday, which is more than enough to pay for its combined production / advertising budgets.
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October 26th, 2018
There’s only one true wide release of the weekend, Hunter Killer, which isn’t expected to make much of an impact at the box office. (Indivisible and Johnny English Strikes Again are both opening in several hundred theaters and one of them could reach the top ten, but probably not both.) This means Halloween will have no trouble repeating on top, while Venom could hold on better than most, thanks to Halloween being less than a week away. This weekend last year, Jigsaw opened in first place with $16.64 million, while Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than those two did giving 2018 yet another win.
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October 25th, 2018
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Venom earned its fourth first place finish on the international chart with $33.17 million on 14,966 screens in 83 markets for totals of $291.61 million internationally and $462.68 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it has yet to open in Japan and China, so it has a shot at $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which would be more than enough to become Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018.
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October 23rd, 2018
Halloween opened on the high end of expectations earning $76.22 million during its opening weekend. This tops The Nun’s previous best opening for a horror film released this year of $53.81 million. Both The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun expanded into the top ten, which also helped the overall box office a little but. Speaking of the overall box office, it rose 21% from last weekend, hitting $165 million. More impressively, this was 72% higher than the same weekend last year. Normally, a year-over-year change this dramatic only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but this has been happening a lot this year. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead over 2017 climbed to $960 million or 11.3% at $9.39 billion to $8.44 billion. There’s no way this lead will remain this high at the end of the year, but it would take a serious collapse for 2018 to not finish with a higher total box office than 2017.
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October 21st, 2018
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According to Universal’s numbers, Halloween is going to debut with $77.75 million over the weekend. This is by far the biggest opening in the franchise; in fact, it is the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise after just three days at the domestic box office. Its reviews are 80% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, and both of those suggest better-than-average legs, for a horror film. Plus, with actual Halloween just 10 days away, it could hold better next weekend than it otherwise would. I don’t expect it to get to $200 million domestically, but it will become Universal’s second-biggest hit of 2018, at least so far. Internationally, the film looks to pull in $14.3 million in 23 markets. It wasn’t able to match its opening here in any major market, which isn’t surprising given its start here. It will come the closest in Mexico, as it is estimated to make $4.99 million over the weekend. It only managed second place in the U.K. with a projected $3.61 million over the weekend, which is equivalent to a $20 million opening here.
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October 20th, 2018
Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up.
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October 18th, 2018
Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 17th, 2018
Venom remained the top draw internationally earning $70.89 million on 20,248 screens in 83 markets for totals of $236.49 million internationally and $378.60 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was France, where it opened in first place with $6.65 million on 703 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.04 million. It also opened in first place in Thailand with $2.14 million on 365 screens and in Vietnam with $1.05 million on 501 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.22 million. Its biggest market overall is South Korea, where it has amassed $25.41 million, including $4.38 million on 1,011 screens this past weekend. At this pace, the film will soon overtake Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, becoming Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018.
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October 16th, 2018
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Last weekend, Venom and A Star is Born opened better than predicted by a large margin and they even held on better than expected this weekend. Unfortunately, none of the new releases matched predictions and that hurt the overall box office. The total box office was down 25% from last weekend at $136 million. More importantly, this is 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is ahead of 2017 at $9.18 billion to $8.31 billion, which is a $880 million or 10.5% lead. A double-digit lead at this point of the year is stunning and while it very likely won’t last, it would take an complete collapse for the lead to evaporate by the end of the year.
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October 14th, 2018
Last weekend, the new releases topped expectations by a significant degree. It appears I got caught up in that enthusiasm, because the three wide releases this weekend all missed expectations. Fortunately, the holdovers helped compensate. Venom is projected to fall just 56% to $35.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $142.6 million. This is a stunningly strong hold, given its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and historical averages for comic book films. Internationally, it pulled in $69.7 million and globally it already has $378.1 million. The film cost $100 million or $116 million, depending on how you look at things. It’s $116 million on the screen, but it cost Sony $100 million after tax breaks. Depending on how much the film cost to advertise and how much Sony’s share of the box office is, the film might have already broken even. It will certainly break even by this time next week.
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October 13th, 2018
All of the new releases missed expectations on Friday. This combined with better than expected holds for the holdovers meant there won’t be any new challengers for first place. That said, there will be a relatively close race for first place between Venom and A Star is Born. Venom fell 70% compared to its opening Friday earning $9.79 million. This is enough to put it on pace for $32 million during its sophomore stint, which is on the very high end of expectations.
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October 12th, 2018
First Man led the way with $1.1 million during its previews last night. There are not many films we can use as comparisons. The Martian cost a whole lot more and had much more buzz, so it is not surprising it did better with $2.5 million in its previews. If the two films have the same legs, then First Man will open with about $24 million, giving it a solid third place. Its reviews slipped just below the 90% positive level, but that’s hardly reason to panic about its box office chances. I think my prediction might have been a little too bullish, but we will have to wait till tomorrow to have a clearer picture.
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October 11th, 2018
There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million.
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October 10th, 2018
The overall box office leader, Venom, was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $18,884. Studio 54 was yet another documentary success story opening with $14,909 in its lone theater. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Free Solo with an average of $13,726 in 41 theaters and by the end of Sunday, it was nearly at $1 million. The Hate U Give was close behind with an average of $13,336 in 36 theaters. Finally, A Star is Born was the last film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $12,373 in wide release.
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October 9th, 2018
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Venom dominated the international chart with $127.15 million on 22,319 screens in 76 markets. Both Russia and South Korea could claim top spot for the film. In the former, it earned $14.39 million in 2,672 screens over the weekend. In the latter, it earned $10.63 million on 1,295 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.48 million. The film debuted in Mexico with $10.07 million on 3,465 screens. It also cracked the $10 million mark in the U.K., if you include previews, as it earned $7.42 million on 867 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.50 million. The film has yet to open in France, Japan, and China, although I’m not convinced it will get passed Chinese censors.
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October 9th, 2018
Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress.
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October 7th, 2018
If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit.
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October 6th, 2018
Despite earning terrible reviews, Venom was able to destroy the record for biggest October day with $32.75 million on Friday, topping the previous record holder Paranormal Activity 3 by a significant margin. Not only will the film blow past $70 million over the weekend, it could come close to $80 million. On the down side, as previously mentioned, its reviews are terrible, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it won’t have good legs going forward. That said, the film reportedly cost $100 million to make ($116 million on the screen, $100 million after tax breaks) so even tragically short legs won’t stop the film from breaking even.
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October 5th, 2018
Venom has already broken records earning $10 million during its previews. This tops the previous record of $8 million held by Paranormal Activity 3 back in 2011. If the film has the same legs, then Venmon will earn a little more than $65 million over the weekend. However, there are some reasons to suspect this film won’t have the same legs. Firstly, its reviews are substantially worse than Paranormal Activity 3’s reviews were. Secondly, 2011 was a long time ago and previews were not as established as they are now, so getting to $8 million then is a little more impressive than getting to $10 million now. Sony is still sticking with a $55 million weekend debut, which is very likely just them being cautious. Our $57 million prediction does seem a little low now, with $60 million to $65 million being more likely.
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October 4th, 2018
The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself.
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October 1st, 2018
September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
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August 20th, 2018
Musical drama starring Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga opens October 5 ... Full Movie Details.
Jackson Maine discovers—and falls in love with—struggling artist Ally. She has just about given up on her dream to make it big as a singer… until Jack coaxes her into the spotlight. But even as Ally’s career takes off, the personal side of their relationship is breaking down, as Jack fights an ongoing battle with his own internal demons.
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