February 14th, 2012
It's a really slow week at the box office with only one first run release, The Rum Diary, and it bombed in theaters. Paranormal Activity 3 is coming out on DVD this week, but it came out on Blu-ray a few weeks ago, so it is not much of a factor in terms of sales this week. In fact, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will likely lead the sales charts, despite coming out on Saturday. As for the best of the new releases, Take Shelter on DVD or Blu-ray is probably the best, but I'm still waiting for the screener to confirm that.
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February 8th, 2012
There was no competition on the Blu-ray sales chart, as Real Steel topped all new releases and holdovers by a healthy margin. It sold 799,000 units and generated $22.36 million in sales giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%. Hopefully we will see a lot more films crack 50% as the winter blockbusters start to come out.
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January 24th, 2012
There are three first run releases of note this week, including an Awards Season player, 50/50; the latest installment in a perennial horror franchise, Paranormal Activity 3; and big budget family film, Real Steel. Of those three, 50/50 is the best and a contender for Pick of the Week. Other contenders include Godzilla: The Criterion Collection on Blu-ray and Wings on Blu-ray. However, I'm going with a late arrival: Moneyball on Blu-ray / DVD Combo Pack.
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January 23rd, 2012
"It's Halloween, so it must be Saw." has turned to "It's Halloween, so it must be Paranormal Activity". With the fourth film already in production, we get Paranormal Activity 3 hitting the home market this week. I've reviewed the previous installments, so how will this one compare to those two films?
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November 14th, 2011
We finally had some good news, as there was a surprise hit at the box office. Immortals opened with substantially more than expected, while the rest of the top five at least came within $500,000 of weekend predictions. This led to an increase from last weekend of 20% to $136 million, while compared to last year, the box office was 12% higher. There is still some bad news. For instance, 2011 is still behind 2010's pace by about 4% at $8.83 billion to $9.19 billion. Also, in order to catch up, we need to maintain year-over-year gains that are about twice as high as they were this weekend. I don't see that happening.
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November 13th, 2011
Relativity will enjoy a relatively comfortable win at the box office this weekend, based on Sunday estimates. 3D fantasy action movie Immortals is set to earn about $32 million, according to their Sunday estimate, and will comfortably beat fellow-opener Jack and Jill. The Adam Sandler comedy is projected to earn $26 million, which makes it essentially tied with Puss in Boots. The animated adventure will be down just 22% this weekend and has passed $100 million at the box office in its third weekend.
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November 9th, 2011
The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn remained on top of the international chart during its second weekend of release, while it crossed the $100 million milestone over the weekend. It expanded into more than two dozen new markets, but most were of the smaller variety. Overall, it made $38.98 million on 7,103 screens in 45 markets, for a total of $123.55 million so far. Russia was the only real exception, where it opened in second place with $4.81 million on 788 screens. It plummeted 74% in France, but still added $6.99 million on 850 screens for a two-week total of $33.44 million. On the other hand, it remained in first place in Spain with $5.19 million on 819 screens over the weekend, for a total of $16.62 million after two. At this point, $200 million internationally is a given, which is likely close to the film's total budget. If it can close close to that figure here, it will break even before the lucrative home market.
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November 7th, 2011
November began like most of 2011 has gone, on a losing note. We are running out of time to turn things around and this weekend it wasn't even close. Neither Tower Heist nor A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas put up much of a fight at the box office and, if it weren't for Puss in Boots's incredible hold, the numbers would have been nothing short of tragic. Granted, the box office rose by 9% from last weekend to $114 million, but that was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2011 is behind 2010 by 4% at $8.66 billion to $9.02 billion and, at this point, I'd settle for that situation not getting any worse from now till the New Year.
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November 3rd, 2011
October ended on a winning note, but overall the month was terrible. Only two films released that month will get to $100 million, while there were five that were bombs. The industry is hoping things will turn around starting this weekend. That might be tricky, as the two new releases opening this weekend, Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas are no where near as strong as last year's new releases. Tower Heist likely won't top Due Date, while Harold and Kumar won't open as strongly as For Colored Girls... did. And that's not even taking into account Megamind, which led the way. If 2011 is to catch up to 2010, it will need to average 20% growth year-over-year. However, it is far more likely we will see 20% drop-off this weekend.
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November 3rd, 2011
The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn doesn't open here till a few days before Christmas, but it led the way on the international chart with an astonishing $56.56 million on 5,699 screens in 19 markets. Its biggest opening was in France, where it managed $26.97 million on 850 screens. That's like a $150 million opening here. It's a record for a non-sequel in that market. It wasn't as impressive in the U.K., but it did score $10.83 million on 512 screens, which is equivalent to a $50 million to $60 million opening here. These results will force me to re-evaluate its box office potential with an above $200 million run a lot more likely now. Granted, the source material is better known in Europe, plus it will have a lot more competition when it debuts here, but this is still a great sign going forward.
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October 31st, 2011
It was a rare winning weekend at the box office, although it came too late to salvage the month, which was a bloody affair and 2011 fell tens of millions of dollars further behind last year's pace. The lone bright spot over the weekend was Puss in Boots, which easily led the way. However, even here there was darkness, as it failed to live up to the low end of expectations. The overall box office was a macabre $105 million, or 14% lower than last weekend. We did get a jolt with the box office creeping up 11% from last year. However, while double-digit growth would normally send chills up your spine, not having to deal with Halloween on the weekend itself explains much of that success. Year-to-date, 2011 remains lifeless down 4% from last year at $8.52 billion compared to $8.86 billion and unless some dark magic can revive the box office, and soon, we will have the second year in a row of year-over-year declines and 2011 could see the lowest ticket sales in about a decade and a half. That's truly scary.
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October 30th, 2011
Although it's perhaps an exaggeration to call it the start of the Holiday Season, Puss in Boots' debut this weekend was intended to give Dreamworks Animation a head start on what will be a very competitive season, and it looks as though it can be called a moderate success. The Shrek spin-off will earn an estimated $34 million this weekend, which should put it on track to earn comfortably over $100 million during its run in domestic theaters. While that's a very respectable performance for October, it pales in comparison to other films in the franchise. Even Shrek Forever After more than doubled that number, and the original Shrek posted over $42 million in 2001. So it's far from certain that this will be the start of a long-lived offshot for the franchise.
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October 27th, 2011
Puss in Boots was pushed up a week and will likely dominate the pre-Halloween weekend with last weekend's winner, Paranormal Activity 3, coming in a distant second. There are a couple of other new wide releases, In Time and The Rum Diary, but neither are generating a lot of buzz. There is some good news, as this weekend last year was a real disappointment and there's a chance both Puss in Boots and Paranormal Activity 3 will earn more than last year's number one film, Saw VII. Hopefully October can end on a high note, because it's been a bad month so far.
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October 26th, 2011
The international box office was pretty slow this week and the only new release to have any impact was Paranormal Activity 3. This film did top the chart with $26.11 million on 3,876 screens in 42 markets. Leading the way was the U.K. with $5.43 million on 391 screens, which was easily enough for first place in that market. It also topped the charts in Russia with $3.20 million on 637 screens, in Australia with $3.04 million on 192, in Mexico with $1.96 million on 732, and in Spain with $1.04 million on 232. On the other hand, it had to settle for third place in France with $2.50 million on 215 screens and in Brazil with $1.21 million on 200. Compared to previous installments, these results were mixed. The film was stronger in Australia, but weaker in the U.K. and France, for instance. It's too soon to tell where it will finish, but assuming it is the biggest hit domestically of the three films, it should at least come close to $200 million worldwide.
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October 25th, 2011
The winners of our Activity is Good for Your Bones contest were determined and they are...
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October 25th, 2011
Martha Marcy May Marlene was one of five films to top $10,000 on the per theater chart leading the way with $34,413. Combining the film's opening with its reviews and it suggests serious potential for expansion. Being Elmo: A Puppeteers Journey opened with $22,963 in its lone theater, which is surprisingly strong. The overall box office leader, Paranormal Activity 3, was next with $15,829. Last week's winner on the per theater chart, The Skin I Live In, remained strong with an average of $11,771 in 21 theaters. Further expansion is likely, as it is earning some measure of mainstream success, but its bizarre subject matter will prevent it from truly escaping the art house circuit. Margin Call was a surprise entrant in the $10,000 club, as it was playing in 56 theaters, which is a lot for a limited release. Its opening weekend average of $10,034 and excellent reviews suggests some potential to expand, while reaching $1 million should happen sometime during the upcoming weekend.
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October 24th, 2011
The industry as a whole has to be breathing a small sigh of relief after the weekend numbers started to come in. Paranormal Activity 3 broke records over the weekend helping the overall box office along the way. It grew 38% compared to last weekend, hitting $121 million. Unfortunately, that was still 6% lower than the same weekend Last year. Year-to-date, 2011 is 4% behind 2010's pace at $8.38 billion to $8.73 million and there's little hope that deficit will go away by the end of the year.
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October 23rd, 2011
After a poor September and slow start to October, Paranormal Activity 3 put some life back in to the movie industry this weekend with a huge $54 million opening weekend, according to Paramount's Sunday estimate. That's comfortably a record for the franchise and will almost certainly top Jackass 3D to become the biggest October's biggest weekend too. With no other horror flick coming out between now and Halloween, it should be set for a comfortable $100 million or so at the box office (on a budget of $5 million).
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October 20th, 2011
The box office was terrible last weekend, so much so that it is hard to imagine things won't turnaround this weekend. There is one film, Paranormal Activity 3, that's almost guaranteed to be a hit, but expectations for the other wide releases range from expensive bomb, The Three Musketeers 3D; international hit that will flop here, Johnny English Reborn and niche market film just hoping to reach the top ten, The Mighty Macs. Last year Paranormal Activity 2 opened with just over $40 million. Paranormal Activity 3 might be able to do the same, but the rest of the new releases and the holdovers are not looking good, so there could be a sizable decline in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 14th, 2011
There are two new releases opening next week that should be at saturation level theater counts: The Three Musketeers - 3D and Paranormal Activity 3. While they both are opening in roughly the same number of theaters, the latter should have the advantage at the box office and it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Paranormal Activity 3.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Bones: Season Six on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Modern Family: Season Two on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2011
There is a little bit of good news going into October, as September did help close the year-to-date deficit, even if it was by a small amount. Unfortunately, we really needed a better result to be optimistic about our chances of closing that gap entirely by the end of the year. Even worse, this month represents the last chance 2011 has to catch up to 2010. I know there are two additional months left in the year, but October of 2010 was a soft month with four of the five weekends showing year-over-year declines. If October 2011 is even weaker, the odds of making up the $300 million deficit will be all but gone. It becomes even more troubling that there are no movies opening in October that are guaranteed to be monster hits. So, while October of 2010 was weak compared to October of 2009, it looks like it will be stronger than October of 2011. Hopefully I'm just being pessimistic. There are a couple films that have a shot at $100 million and I will be surprised if none of them at least come close to that milestone, but the slate of films is weaker than I would like.
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