November 25th, 2013
It's a pretty soft week when it comes to new releases. This is not surprising, as it is also Thanksgiving long weekend starting on Wednesday. These releases are only going to be out one day before they are overshadowed by sales. Fortunately, there are a couple of releases that stand out. The biggest of these, and the best, is Breaking Bad: The Final Season. The DVD or the Blu-ray could be a contender for Pick of the Week even during the busiest week. However, I think that honor should go to the show's Blu-ray Megaset. It is expensive, but it is worth it. An honorable mention goes to Mystery Science Theater 3000: 25th Anniversary Edition.
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October 3rd, 2013
Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon opened in China with $17.0 million earning first place in that market and on the overall international chart. The original earned a limited release here and was a great movie, so I'm hoping this film will also get a release here. I'm certainly looking forward to seeing it.
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August 26th, 2013
Summer is rapidly ending and you can tell by the box office numbers of the wide releases this weekend. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones had the biggest opening of the three wide releases, but not really the best opening. The World's End earned a little less over the three-day weekend, but it also reportedly cost just $20 million to make, so it will earn a profit, unlike City of Bones. The final new release was You're Next, which couldn't live up to its reviews, but again, it is rumored to have cost very little to make, perhaps less than $1 million, so it should break even sooner rather than later. With the weakness in the new releases, Lee Daniels' The Butler had no trouble repeating in first place, but the overall box office did fall by 21% from last weekend to $110 million. This was still better than last year by 12%, which extends 2013's winning streak to five weeks. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $7.18 billion leading 2012's pace of $6.97 billion by 3%.
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August 20th, 2013
It turns out Lee Daniels' The Butler was the strongest of the four wide releases. In fact, given its reviews and its target demographic, it could hit $100 million. Kick-Ass 2 really stumbled, which is not that surprising given its reviews, but a lot of analysts failed to predict this result. Jobs missed the top five by a wide degree, while Paranoia missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 12% to $139 million. This is higher than the same weekend last year, but by a barely perceivable 0.2%. Year-to-date, 2013 is ahead of 2012, but by a tiny 0.25% margin. Still, compared to where we were earlier in the year, this is a massive victory.
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August 18th, 2013
If it can move Summer forward to the first week in May, perhaps Hollywood can also move Awards Season forward to mid-August. That's certainly the feeling one gets from looking at the varying fortunes of this weekend's openers. Summer standards Paranoia and Kick-Ass 2 have both fallen by the wayside (with a dismal $3.5 million opening in the first case and a disappointing $13.6 million debut in the latter). Jobs, which was made with awards in mind, has misfired with a $6.7 million start. But one film has risen above the rest on the basis of a compelling story and some high-class acting. Lee Daniels' The Butler will top the chart this weekend with around $25 million, according to Weinstein Co.'s Sunday estimate. That's the first film from the distributor to top the chart since Inglourious Basterds did this weekend in 2009. That film also had Oscar aspirations, and The Butler might well follow a similar course in Awards Season: some impressive nominations but ultimately not top honors.
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August 16th, 2013
Summer blockbuster season has officially ended, but there are four films hoping to grab a share of the limited box office dollars left. Kick-Ass 2 is the clear favorite among analysts, but it is being beat up by critics. Lee Daniels' The Butler is the only other film with a shot at first place. It is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and I think it will be remembered as busted Oscar bait. Neither Jobs nor Paranoia have a real shot at the top five, nor are they earning critical praise. There were also four films that opened wide this weekend last year. All four of them earned $10 million or more, led by The Expendables II with $28.59, while there were three holdovers with $10 million or more. There's a slim chance Kick-Ass 2 will match The Expendables II, but I wouldn't bet on it. Plus the depth this year is weaker that last year's depth was. That's bad news for the year-over-year comparison.
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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