February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 20th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Original Screenplay category isn't the most lop-sided category we will highlight, but it is also not very competitive.
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February 15th, 2016
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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February 7th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America awards were handed out and it was a big night for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and The Revenant.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 14th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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August 3rd, 2015
The new releases for July 14th dominated the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for July 19. In fact, they took every single spot in the top five. The Longest Ride led the way with 514,000 units / $9.03 million Its opening week Blu-ray share was 24%, which is better than the Blu-ray share of a lot of female-centric dramas.
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July 23rd, 2015
The winners of our Ant Machina contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ant Man opening weekend were...
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July 13th, 2015
It is both a good and a bad week on the home market. The biggest new release is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. That's bad. However, there are also a trio of limited releases coming out this week that are easily contenders for Pick of the Week: Clouds of Sils Maria, Ex Machina, and It Follows. It is really a coin-toss between those three, but in the end, I went with Clouds of Sils Maria - Buy from Amazon: DVD.
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July 13th, 2015
Ex Machina is a high-concept Sci-fi movie that I thought had a chance to do well in limited release. ... It earned just over $25 million in theaters and is currently one of the biggest limited release hits of the year. The fact that it found an audience is excellent. Did it deserve this success? And does the DVD / Blu-ray live up to its theatrical success?
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July 10th, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, Ant-man and Trainwreck, and while I think Trainwreck will be a bigger hit than most analysts are predicting, Ant-man is still going to dominate the box office. Because of this, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ant-man.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a Frankenprize featuring a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 8th, 2015
The winners of our Terminate Maggie contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Terminator: Genisys opening weekend were...
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July 5th, 2015
Two much-anticipated sequels have fallen short of knocking the two incumbents from the top of the box office chart this weekend. Terminator: Genisys will come closest with a mediocre $28.7 million three-day weekend, and $44.1 million after five days in release. That’s a couple of million behind the two returning giants, which are essentially tied for the weekend at this point. Jurassic World has the edge according to the official studio estimates, with Universal putting its total at $30.94 million for the weekend, compared to Disney’s $30.11 million projection for Inside Out. Other tracking we’ve seen suggests that the films will both end up with a shade over $30 million. The film’s respective performance on Sunday will determine who ends up the weekend winner.
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July 2nd, 2015
The winners of our Lather Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ted 2 opening weekend were...
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July 2nd, 2015
There were only two films in the $10,000 club and they were the wide releases that earned the top two spots on the overall box office chart. Jurassic World earned an average of $12,990, while Inside Out was very close behind with an average of $12,663. The best limited release was Runoff, which earned $9,515 in one theater.
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June 25th, 2015
The winners of our Documenting Your Success contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Inside Out opening weekend were...
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June 23rd, 2015
As I've mentioned countless times in the past, the summer is the worst time of year for the home market. Outside of an occasional spring hit, there's very little worth talking about. It's much too late for last year's holiday hits, it's much too early for the summer blockbusters, and there are not even a lot of TV on DVD releases to pick up the slack. However, as bad as the average is, this week is much, much worse. There are no first-run releases of note. There's no real limited releases, TV on DVD releases, or classics coming out either. I had nothing to review this week. The top contender for Pick of the Week is Ex Machina, which is only coming out on Video on Demand. It's that slow on the home market. The other two contenders are Lupin the Third: The Castle of Cagliostro on Blu-ray and Timbuktu on Blu-ray.
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June 3rd, 2015
There was only one film in the $10,000 club on the per theater chart and it was the overall box office leader, San Andreas. That film opened in first place with an average of $14,453. The best new limited release was Heaven Knows What, which earned an average of $8,431 from two theaters.
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May 15th, 2015
This week's list of limited releases is shorter than usual, as I needed to get the home market numbers done. On the other hand, there are only six or so films earning great reviews and / or any amount of buzz, so there's not much you are missing. Good Kill could be the biggest hit, at least for a week before it goes to Video on Demand. Others, like Slow West, are already playing on Video on Demand.
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May 12th, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in first place on the per theater chart with an average of $18,182. It wasn't the only film in the $10,000 chart this week. Pather Panchali was close behind with $16,333 in its lone theater. I Am Big Bird: The Caroll Spinney Story earned $10,150 over the weekend for a total of $13,053 from Wednesday through Sunday.
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May 10th, 2015
Hot Pursuit is utterly failing to live up to its name this weekend, with an anaemic $13.3 million opening—the worst for Reese Witherspoon since Cruel Intentions in 1999, and her worst ever for a wide-release movie, when adjusted for inflation. The Avengers: Age of Ultron wasn't really expected to be threatened in first place, and is actually doing quite well for a movie that opened with close to $200 million. It will be down about 60% this weekend to $77.2 million, per Disney, the second-best second weekend ever, just ahead of Avatar, and some way behind The Avengers.
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May 7th, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron not only earned first place on the overall box office chart, but it also topped the per theater chart with an average of $44,731. There were a couple of limited releases in the $10,000 club, Welcome to Me with an average of $19,084 in two theaters and Far from the Madding Crowd with an average of $16,499 in ten theaters. Iris came really close with an average of $9,542 in six theaters over the weekend and an average of $11,467 from Wednesday through Sunday.
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April 28th, 2015
There were no films in the $10,000 club this week and no new releases really came close. The closest was Full Moon in Paris, which rose 58% from last weekend to $7,987, still in one theater. Felix et Meira was next with an average of $6,590 after expanding from one to four theaters. Don't Think I've Forgotten: Cambodia's Lost Rock and Roll was the biggest new release with an average of $6,402 in three theaters over the weekend for an average of $8,465 from Wednesday to Sunday.
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April 27th, 2015
As expected, Furious 7 completed the sweep winning every single weekend in April. Thankfully, every film in the top five matched or exceeded predictions, including The Age of Adaline, which had a solid third place opening. However, the overall box office still fell 18% from last weekend to just $97 million. This was also 16% lower than the same weekend last year. 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a margin of 2.3% at $3.13 billion to $3.06 billion.
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April 26th, 2015
Furious 7 will once more hold on to the title of top movie at the box office this weekend, becoming the first film since Guardians of the Galaxy to do so for four weekends, and the first since The Hunger Games to be number one for four straight weeks. Furious 7 will also become this weekend only the third title, after Avatar and Titanic, to hit $1 billion in international box office earnings. Universal is estimating an international total of $1.001 billion, including $323 million in China—an all-time record for that territory.
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April 23rd, 2015
The Age of Adaline is the only true wide release this week, and that could give it a boost at the box office. However, I seriously doubt that will give it a large enough boost to top Furious 7, which is looking to sweep the month of April. There is one other new release, Little Boy, that has a shot at the top ten. Finally, Ex Machina is expanding “nationwide.” I don't have a theater count for the film, but many think it will be truly wide, which would give it a shot at the top five. The Other Woman opened in first place this weekend last year, earning nearly $25 million. There’s no chance any film will match that figure this year. The top two films combined might not match that figure this year, so April will end on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison. That’s disappointing, but we will make up for the loss next week.
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April 21st, 2015
Ex Machina remained in first place on the per theater chart with an average of $20,478 in 39 theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Felix et Meira, which earned $15,018 in its lone theater.
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April 19th, 2015
Furious 7 continues its cruise into the record books this weekend with a third straight weekend at number one domestically, an international weekend estimated at $167.9 million (including $93.3 million in China to take it to $250 million there), and a worldwide total estimated at $1.153 billion as of the end of Sunday. It’s now the biggest film in Universal’s history, and their second after Jurassic Park to cross $1 billion at the worldwide box office. The film’s 51% decline in its third weekend in the domestic market suggests it’s running out of steam and will probably end with around $330 million here. It still has one weekend to cash in though, before Avengers: Age of Ultron will start on its own march to $1 billion on May 1.
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April 15th, 2015
Ex Machina's opening weekend was surprisingly potent earning an average of $59,316 in four theaters. This is the biggest per theater average for a film that opened in 2015. I was not expecting that. On the other hand, I was expecting Clouds of Sils Maria to do well, and it did, earning an average of $20,603 in three theaters. Furious 7 remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $14,815 in more than 4,000 theaters.
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April 12th, 2015
With little in the way of direct competition, Furious 7 will maintain a comfortable lead at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Universal is projecting a $60.6 million weekend, for a total of $252.5 million after 10 days in release. That will make the film the 9th-fastest to the $250 million mark (see current list here). With the film’s international box office total rushing to $548 million so far, it will have topped $800 million globally by the end of the weekend, moving it past Fifty Shades of Grey to become, by a healthy margin, the top-grossing movie worldwide in 2015.
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April 10th, 2015
It is an excellent week for limited releases with two films earning stunning reviews and loud buzz: Clouds of Sils Maria and Ex Machina. I think the former has a better chance to expand significantly, but hopefully both will find audiences in theaters. There are also a number of other limited releases earning amazing reviews: About Elly, Black Souls, The Sisterhood of Night, etc. In fact, there are too many to think all of them will thrive.
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April 1st, 2015
March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely.
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