January 24th, 2012
Moneyball led all new releases and the overall DVD sales chart with 601,000 units / $10.22 million during its first week of release.
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January 19th, 2012
The Blu-ray sales chart was both busy and slow this week. On the one hand, there were five new releases that charted this week, including three in the top ten. On the other hand, only one of those new releases, Contagion, did any significant business. It was able to sell 274,000 units while generating $4.93 million in revenue, giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 40%. That's a very good share for a drama, but its overall home market run is disappointing.
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January 17th, 2012
There were five new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD sales chart. This includes a new number one selling DVD, Contagion. The film sold 411,000 units during its first week of release generating $6.16 million.
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January 11th, 2012
Rise of the Planet of the Apes returned to the top of the Blu-ray sales chart with 390,000 units / $5.84 million over the week for totals of 1.59 million units / $33.76 million after three.
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January 3rd, 2012
The first Tuesday of the year is not a great time of year for new releases on the home market. It's an even worse time of year for critics, especially this year. With Christmas Day landing on the Sunday, many studios took the entire week off, so there are plenty of screeners that still haven't made it my way. (There is some good news here, as I was able to get caught up on all of the screeners that had previously arrived late.) A couple of these potential late arrivals are contenders for Pick of the Week, like Justified: Season Two - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and Mildred Pierce - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. They also have competition from Contagion - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray, but in the end I gave that honor to The Guard - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray.
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October 26th, 2011
The international box office was pretty slow this week and the only new release to have any impact was Paranormal Activity 3. This film did top the chart with $26.11 million on 3,876 screens in 42 markets. Leading the way was the U.K. with $5.43 million on 391 screens, which was easily enough for first place in that market. It also topped the charts in Russia with $3.20 million on 637 screens, in Australia with $3.04 million on 192, in Mexico with $1.96 million on 732, and in Spain with $1.04 million on 232. On the other hand, it had to settle for third place in France with $2.50 million on 215 screens and in Brazil with $1.21 million on 200. Compared to previous installments, these results were mixed. The film was stronger in Australia, but weaker in the U.K. and France, for instance. It's too soon to tell where it will finish, but assuming it is the biggest hit domestically of the three films, it should at least come close to $200 million worldwide.
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September 22nd, 2011
It's a busy week with four wide releases, including two that are opening at saturation level theater counts. With such a lot of competition, there's little chance all four will find a sizable audience this weekend. In fact, there's a chance none of them will be able to top The Lion King, leaving it on top for the second weekend in a row. If that happens, there's no telling how many classic films will get a 3D conversion. As for which release have the best shot at becoming the new box office king, Moneyball seems to be the consensus pick, but there is some debate as to how well the new releases will do. There's also some debate as to how well the overall box office will do compared to last year. There's a 50-50 chance the number one film this year will top Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, which earned just over $19 million last year, while the depth is a little better this year.
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September 19th, 2011
There were three new wide releases this past weekend, but it was a re-release, The Lion King, that dominated at the box office. This success is really good news, because all three new wide releases, Drive, I Don't Know How She Does It, and Straw Dogs, missed expectations. The overall movie industry generated just over $101 million this weekend, compared to $82 million last weekend, which is a 24% increase. This weekend last year, the overall box office was just under $101 million, so yes, 2011 squeezed out a win this week, even if it was by less than 1%. Year-to-date, 2011 has earned $7.70 billion, compared to $8.01 billion it earned last year. We are going to need to see some big wins over the coming weeks if 2011 is going to have a shot at closing that gap by the end of December.
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September 15th, 2011
It could be an interesting week at the box office, with three films opening wide, Drive, I Don't Know How She Does It, and Straw Dogs, plus a fourth film being re-released wide, The Lion King. There's a lot of uncertainty in the box office predictions for the weekend and I've seen various predictions that have Drive winning the weekend, Contagion repeating on top, and some say The Lion King's 3D conversion will boost it to number one. Unfortunately, while there's a wide range of opinion regarding what film will top the box office chart, there are very few people who think this weekend will be as strong as last year when The Town opened with nearly $24 million and Easy A earned close to $18 million. It's unlikely the top two films will earn that much this year and we don't have the same depth either.
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September 14th, 2011
The winners of our Catch the Fever contest were determined and they are...
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September 12th, 2011
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year, and that appears to be the case this time around. No film matched Thursday's predictions, although a couple came relatively close, like Contagion. Unfortunately, the rest of the new releases really bombed and most of the holdovers fell significantly more than expected. This led to the box office falling 24% from last weekend to just $82 million. This is the lowest it's been all year, and lower than last year, but by less than 1%. Unless next weekend will be even worse, and it is almost hard to imagine that as a possibility, this will be the lowest point for the year. On the other hand, there's a chance that we don't dip below this level for a long, long time, if ever. Given population growth and inflation, hitting these low points are less likely each year.
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September 11th, 2011
Having four wide releases on what is traditionally the slowest weekend of the year never seemed like a good idea. And so it proved for three of the films. The fourth, however, can lay claim to decent numbers this weekend. Contagion posted a very respectable estimated opening of $23.1 million, according to Warner Bros.' on Sunday, with a per theater average of over $7,000. That put it well ahead of The Help, which scored $8.7 million in second place. Warrior will be third with $5.6 million from 1,869 theaters -- not a bad opening, but a $3,000 per theater average won't encourage significant expansion, no matter how good word of mouth is for the film. The other two wide openers would have loved to come even close to that number though.
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September 8th, 2011
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend tends to be one of the worst, if not the worst weekend of the year, but that probably won't be the case this year. This weekend we have four wide releases, one of which is a bit of a surprise wide release. One of them, Contagion, could wind up being a real hit. The other three, well, they are not opening truly wide. Maybe The Warrior will be a sleeper hit, but the other two could struggle to reach the top ten. By comparison, this weekend last year Resident Evil: Afterlife 3D was a surprise hit with $26.65 million. It's not terribly likely any film will match that opening, but 2011 has better depth and hopefully that will be the key to victory.
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September 2nd, 2011
The first week of school is about to begin for millions of kids, so what better way is there to celebrate then to feature a movie about an infectious disease in our box office prediction contest. (The only thing better than a sick day was a snow day.) Contagion is the only film opening truly wide next week and it is the clear choice for target film. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Contagion.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Team Umizoomi: Journey to Numberland on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Go, Diego, Go!: Diego Saves the World on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2011
After a strong start, August ended on a really low note, and that's bad news for September, as it means the positive momentum we had is gone. Looking at the upcoming month, there are 18 films opening wide over five weekends (including one re-release) but only four or five of them have a real shot at being midlevel hits, and it is unlikely that all of them will get there. Worse still, there are no films opening this month that look like they will match The Town, which made more than $90 million last September. In fact, the selection of releases is so weak that the film I'm most looking forward to is a limited release that has already come out on Video on Demand, Tucker and Dale vs. Evil. (It has seventeen reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and still not a negative one among them.)
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