January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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January 13th, 2014
There are a few first-run releases on this week's list of new DVD and Blu-ray releases. Riddick is the biggest, while You're Next is the best in terms of reviews. However, neither is truly Pick of the Week material. There are some contenders there, and in a strange coincidence, the two best feature Brie Larson: Short Term 12 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and The Spectacular Now on DVD or Blu-ray. It literally came down to a coin toss, but The Spectacular Now won.
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December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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December 14th, 2013
SAG handed out nominations over the week, and like with the Independent Spirit Awards, 12 Years a Slave led the way and earned four nominations. It wasn't the only film that was singled out.
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September 20th, 2013
There might be a close race at the box office this weekend. The buzz surrounding Prisoners is growing enough that it should earn first place, but Insidious Chapter 2 might hold on well enough to challenge the newcomer for top spot. The other new release for the week is Battle of the Year, which is opening in fewer theaters than I thought it would and with much worse reviews. It likely won't be a factor. In fact, there's a slim chance that the 3-D re-release of The Wizard of Oz will earn more this weekend than Battle of the Year will. The best new releases from this week last year was End of Watch, which only managed $13.15 million. This is close to what it cost to make, but it is low for a number one film. On the other hand, last year had much better depth than this year will have, so 2013's winning streak might come to an end.
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September 17th, 2013
Both new releases topped expectations and even though a couple of the holdovers struggled a little bit, the overall box office was still fantastic. Insidious Chapter 2 broke a September record that has been held for more than a decade on its way to a $40 million opening. The Family was well back in second place, but still on the high end of expectations. Overall, the box office pulled in $103 million. This was 21% more than last week and 19% more than the same weekend last year. In fact, Insidious Chapter 2 made more than Resident Evil: Retribution and Finding Nemo 3D made combined last year. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $7.66 billion compared to $7.55 billion at this point in 2012.
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September 13th, 2013
This week there are two films opening in saturation level theater counts (3,000 or more theaters). However, the two have very different outlooks. Insidious Chapter 2 is expected to cruise to the top, perhaps with well over $30 million. The Family's outlook is a lot weaker and some analysts don't expect it to reach $10 million. Last year the number one film was Resident Evil: Retribution, which opened with $21.05 million, while Finding Nemo 3D was in second place with $16.69 million. There's a chance the top two films this weekend will beat those two combined, but even if that doesn't happen, last year's depth was pathetic, to put it mildly. 2013 should have an easy time coming away with a win.
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September 10th, 2013
We have good news and bad news. Riddick only managed to reach the low end of expectations, while the overall box office was down nearly $40 million, or 32%, from last week. On the positive side, Instructions Not Included finished on the high end of expectations, while the overall box office was $85 million, which was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 has earned $7.54 billion, or 1.2% higher than last year's pace.
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September 6th, 2013
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is historically the worst weekend of the year. Because of that, it should come as no surprise that there is only one wide release this weekend. After all, studios don't want to release a film if the weekend is practically cursed. However, that one film is Riddick, which is actually earning good buzz. It might crack $30 million over the weekend. Might. It would be a surprise, but you can't completely dismiss the possibility. The only other semi-new film to talk about is Instructions Not Included, which is doubling its theater count. However, it's a niche market film and these tend to have short legs, as the target audience rushes out to see them immediately. Fortunately, it doesn't really matter, because last year was a disaster. As long as Riddick tops $10 million, 2013 will come out ahead.
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September 4th, 2013
The Labor Day long weekend is over and pre-weekend predictions were spot on, at least when it came to the top-two films. One Direction: This is Us opened in first place on Friday, but by Sunday had fallen to fifth place, allowing Lee Daniels' The Butler to remain on top, if you go by the four-day weekend. There were a few surprises this weekend, including Instructions Not Included. I hoped it would do well, but I never imaged it would do this well. Overall the weekend was strong at $125 million over the three-day weekend, which was 14% more than last weekend. Over four days, the total box office was $160 million. This was 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 holds a 0.9% lead over 2012 at 7.44 billion to $7.37 billion.
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August 29th, 2013
It's the Labor Day long weekend, which is widely regarded as the weakest long weekend of the year. This year there are two wide releases, One Direction: This is Us and Getaway, looking to grab the final box office dollars before Summer officially ends. (One could argue it unofficially ended weeks ago.) One Direction should have no trouble finding an audience among young girls, but there's a chance the more mature audience Lee Daniels' The Butler has been attracting will be large enough to withstand that push. Getaway, on the other hand, is just hoping to get one positive review before the weekend starts. There was a third film that was supposed to open wide this week, Closed Circuit, but it is now opening in 800 or so theaters, so it won't be a factor. Last year, there were two wide releases, both of which topped $10 million during the three-day weekend. The new releases this year won't match that, but there's better depth this time around.
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August 26th, 2013
Summer is rapidly ending and you can tell by the box office numbers of the wide releases this weekend. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones had the biggest opening of the three wide releases, but not really the best opening. The World's End earned a little less over the three-day weekend, but it also reportedly cost just $20 million to make, so it will earn a profit, unlike City of Bones. The final new release was You're Next, which couldn't live up to its reviews, but again, it is rumored to have cost very little to make, perhaps less than $1 million, so it should break even sooner rather than later. With the weakness in the new releases, Lee Daniels' The Butler had no trouble repeating in first place, but the overall box office did fall by 21% from last weekend to $110 million. This was still better than last year by 12%, which extends 2013's winning streak to five weeks. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $7.18 billion leading 2012's pace of $6.97 billion by 3%.
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August 25th, 2013
Lee Daniels' The Butler will enjoy a second weekend atop the box office chart thanks in part to a good hold, at 31% down from last weekend, but also because of a major misfire for Mortal Instruments: City of Bones on its opening weekend. The fantasy adventure will only muster about $9.3 million Friday-Sunday for $14.05 million after five days in release -- a big disappointment for a film that reportedly cost $60 million to produce. International markets will make up some of the gap, and a sequel is still said to be in the works, but North America won't contribute much if anything to the coffers after marketing costs are taken into account. The rest of the chart has some bright spots though.
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August 23rd, 2013
There are three wide releases coming out this week, well, two and a half really. The World's End is only opening in 1,548 theaters, but it is also earning by far the best reviews. It is probably still too much of a niche market to take top spot. You're Next is earning great reviews and horror films do have a history of doing well at this time of year. The final wide release of the week is The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. Not only did it open on Wednesday, but its reviews are terrible. Last year there were three wide releases, all of them bombed. Combined they made less than $14 million. The new releases should have no trouble topping last year's new releases, while the holdovers are also stronger.
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August 20th, 2013
It turns out Lee Daniels' The Butler was the strongest of the four wide releases. In fact, given its reviews and its target demographic, it could hit $100 million. Kick-Ass 2 really stumbled, which is not that surprising given its reviews, but a lot of analysts failed to predict this result. Jobs missed the top five by a wide degree, while Paranoia missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 12% to $139 million. This is higher than the same weekend last year, but by a barely perceivable 0.2%. Year-to-date, 2013 is ahead of 2012, but by a tiny 0.25% margin. Still, compared to where we were earlier in the year, this is a massive victory.
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August 18th, 2013
If it can move Summer forward to the first week in May, perhaps Hollywood can also move Awards Season forward to mid-August. That's certainly the feeling one gets from looking at the varying fortunes of this weekend's openers. Summer standards Paranoia and Kick-Ass 2 have both fallen by the wayside (with a dismal $3.5 million opening in the first case and a disappointing $13.6 million debut in the latter). Jobs, which was made with awards in mind, has misfired with a $6.7 million start. But one film has risen above the rest on the basis of a compelling story and some high-class acting. Lee Daniels' The Butler will top the chart this weekend with around $25 million, according to Weinstein Co.'s Sunday estimate. That's the first film from the distributor to top the chart since Inglourious Basterds did this weekend in 2009. That film also had Oscar aspirations, and The Butler might well follow a similar course in Awards Season: some impressive nominations but ultimately not top honors.
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August 16th, 2013
Summer blockbuster season has officially ended, but there are four films hoping to grab a share of the limited box office dollars left. Kick-Ass 2 is the clear favorite among analysts, but it is being beat up by critics. Lee Daniels' The Butler is the only other film with a shot at first place. It is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and I think it will be remembered as busted Oscar bait. Neither Jobs nor Paranoia have a real shot at the top five, nor are they earning critical praise. There were also four films that opened wide this weekend last year. All four of them earned $10 million or more, led by The Expendables II with $28.59, while there were three holdovers with $10 million or more. There's a slim chance Kick-Ass 2 will match The Expendables II, but I wouldn't bet on it. Plus the depth this year is weaker that last year's depth was. That's bad news for the year-over-year comparison.
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August 9th, 2013
There are a quartet of wide releases coming out next week; however, only two of them look like they will be anything more than mediocre. The Butler should have the best legs of the four films, but Kick Ass 2 should have the biggest opening. As such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Kick Ass 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Gunsmoke: The Ninth Season, Volume One and Volume Two on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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