March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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February 18th, 2018
The BAFTAs were handed out on Sunday night, with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning the most awards at five. This is not too surprising, as it was technically a British film, despite its setting, and that gave it a leg up on the competition.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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January 11th, 2018
The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
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December 13th, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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October 10th, 2017
It’s a good week for the home market with top notch releases in nearly every category. Baby Driver is the biggest first run release of the week and one of the best releases. The Lure is a foreign-language film and one of two Criterion Collection releases in competition for Pick of the Week. Maudie is a Canadian limited release that did surprisingly well in theaters. Finally there’s Othello, which first came out more than 60 years ago. The only thing we are missing is a TV on DVD title. As for the winner, I’m giving Pick of the Week to, Othello, while Maudie wins Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release.
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September 13th, 2017
Apparently it is Halloween, because there are a lot of horror titles on this week’s list. Some of them are good, some are not. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are a few of them. If you have kids, then Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra Combo Pack is your best bet. If you are a fan of Sci-fi, then go with the final season for Orphan Black. However, in the end I went with Phenomena on Blu-ray. You can also buy the movie from the Official Site in a Steelbox with soundtrack and pamphlet.
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August 31st, 2017
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Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets earned first place on the international chart with $32.78 million in 32 countries for totals of $124.12 million internationally and $163.81 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $28.88 million over the weekend for a total of $29.24 million. The film has yet to open in South Korea and Italy so it will likely top its production budget worldwide; that’s nowhere near enough to break even, but if it can get to $200 million worldwide, then it can at least safe face.
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August 15th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation’s opening saved summer for one week, but that’s the practically the only good news we have to talk about this weekend. The film pulled in $35.01 million, which is over three times its nearest competition. That’s the bad news. The depth this past weekend was terrible, as there were only two films with more than $10 million, compared to five films last weekend. The overall box office fell 4.6% to just $117 million. Worse still, this is 32% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by $360 million or 4.9% at $7.07 billion to $7.43 billion. The year has lost over $500 million compared to last year’s pace during summer alone. This is a disaster.
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July 28th, 2017
Atomic Blonde easily topped The Emoji Movie during previews, earning $1.52 million. However, had the action flick not topped the family film, it would have been a disaster. Compared to other recent action films, Atomic Blonde underperformed Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($1.7 million) and Baby Driver ($2.1 million), but at least it topped King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($1.15 million). This summer, the average action film has opened with just over 10 times what it made during its previews, which is bad news for Atomic Blonde, as it puts the film’s opening weekend at $15 million to $16 million. Its reviews are good, but not great enough to really change this trend. Even $20 million would be a boon after this start.
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July 18th, 2017
The weekend box office chart didn’t hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on “little”, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017’s lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last year’s pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. We’ve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I don’t see that turning around any time soon.
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July 15th, 2017
As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.
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July 13th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
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July 11th, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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July 9th, 2017
A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. It’s the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budget—this is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflation—profitability looks assured, and Sony’s partnership with Disney looks as though it’s paying off.
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July 8th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming dominated the box office on Friday and in a pleasant surprise, it beat predictions with $50.5 million during its opening day. Its opening day vs. its previews is almost identical to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would put the film on pace for $130 million over the weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming did earn better reviews, while both movies earned a solid A from CinemaScore, and many more kids have no school on Monday compared to when Guardians debuted. All of this should help its legs. On the other hand, Homecoming could have a bigger Fanboy Effect, as Spider-Man is a much more established character. Because of that, I’m going to be a little more cautious and predict a $125 million opening weekend. This is still simply fantastic and the only downside is Sony and Disney have to work together to make this work in the long term. This is Sony’s second best domestic opening of all time. (Spider-Man 3 is the only one that beats it.) It could open with more than last year’s number one domestic hit for the studio, Ghostbusters, earned in total. Sony has a lot of reasons to work with Disney to keep Spider-Man in the MCU.
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July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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July 5th, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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July 3rd, 2017
The combination of Canada Day and Independence Day has resulted in some studios not releasing the weekend final numbers today. Some are releasing final numbers, some have updated Sunday’s estimates, while others are just waiting until Wednesday for final results. Despicable Me 3 is in the middle category, as Universal revised its estimate downwards to $72.41 million. This is still a great opening, but it is also a troubling trajectory, as it has fallen a lot from Friday’s Estimates, when it looked like it was going to hit $83 million. Granted, this is still the sixth-biggest opening of the year, so Universal has reason to celebrate, but its internal multiplier suggests short legs for a family film. I think this is a case of franchise fatigue, as its reviews were good, even if they were not as good as the previous Despicable Me films.
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July 2nd, 2017
With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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June 30th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 earned $4.1 million during previews last night, which is both good and bad. It is the best previews for an animated film this year, topping the $2.8 million Cars 3 earned earlier this month. However, it is weaker than the $4.7 million Despicable Me 2 earned and that film was a Wednesday release, so that would have depressed its previews even more, which makes this comparison even worse for Despicable Me 3. The Secret Life of Pets opened on a Friday and earned $5.3 million during its previews. If we use that film as a gauge, then Despicable Me 3 will earn $81 million over the weekend. Despicable Me 3 has earned weaker reviews than those The Secret Life of Pets earned, while it is also a sequel, which tends to hurt legs. We predicted $82 million, but that might be a little optimistic now. It should come close, on the other hand.
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June 29th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 should dominate the box office this weekend, which is good news, because the last few weeks have been underwhelming. In fact, we haven’t had a monster hit since Wonder Woman started the month off with a bang. The House is an R-rated comedy, but since the last such film to come out bombed, I’m a little worried about its chances. Baby Driver opened on Wednesday and its early numbers are promising. It won’t be a $100 million hit, but it should earn a solid profit for Sony. This weekend last year, there were no monster hits at the box office, but there was solid depth. This weekend, we should be much stronger on top, while the depth won’t be that much weaker, leading to 2017 ending its mini-losing streak.
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June 23rd, 2017
Despicable Me 3 is going to win next weekend’s box office race. There’s no doubt about that. In fact, it will make more than Baby Driver and The House will make combined. Because of this, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Despicable Me 3.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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May 2nd, 2017
Action movie starring Ansel Elgort, Kevin Spacey, and Lily James, directed by Edgar Wright opens June 28 ... Full Movie Details.
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