This graph shows Amy Schumer’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s a shallow week in terms of the total number of releases, but a lot of films on this list are worth picking up. Rampage is the biggest and it is worth buying, if you are into popcorn action flicks. There are a lot of other releases that are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week contenders, like Disobedience, The Good Place: Season Two, etc. As for true Pick of the Week contenders, we have a limited selection and I’m going with Isle of Dogs on Blu-ray Combo Pack for that title.
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There are two wide releases this week, I Feel Pretty and Super Troopers 2, as well as a semi-wide release that has a shot at the top ten, Traffik. However, most analysts think A Quiet Place will return to first place on the box office chart. Meanwhile, Infinity War opens next week and that’s all most moviegoers are talking about and this will likely really hurt this week’s box office. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious remained on top with $38 million, while the top three films combined earned $60 million. I don’t think 2018 will be able to match that, but it should be close.
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Well, March has ended and it was a very disappointing month. Black Panther made more than any of the new releases did. The only potential big hit that didn’t miss expectations was Ready Player One. Because of this, 2018 lost its lead over 2017 and is now over $100 million behind last year’s pace. April is usually a terrible month, because it is a dumping ground, especially late in the month. No studio wants to compete with the first monster hit of the Summer. This year, the first monster hit of the summer, Avengers: Infinity War, opens in April. It will make more during its opening weekend than any other April release will make in total. It might make more opening day than any other April release will make in total. The only film that has a real chance to earn more than $100 million is Rampage, a video game adaptation. Last April, The Fate of the Furious earned more than $1.2 billion worldwide, but “only” earned $225.76 million of that domestically. Infinity War should earn more than that opening weekend. The second biggest hit of last April was Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style, both of which earned $45.02 million. If 2018 doesn’t retake the lead by the end of the month, then 2018 is in trouble at the box office.
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Summer has likely ended at the box office, while it is about to begin on the home market. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the first of the summer monster hits to come out on the home market. Granted, it is only out on Video on Demand this week, but it is still a contender for Pick of the Week. There are a couple of other contenders, including Cinematic Titanic: The Complete Collection and Re-Animator: Limited Edition 2-Disc Blu-ray, but in the end, I went with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
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As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 crushed the competition this weekend earning more than Snatched and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword’s combined openings. However, it held on better than expected down 55% to $65.26 million. The overall box office still fell by 30% from last weekend to $136 million. This is 3.8% higher than the same weekend last year. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 held on better than Captain America: Civil War did during its sophomore stint, but it was strong depth that helped 2017 win the year-over-year comparison. It didn’t win by much, so the overall lead still shrunk to 3.4% at $4.07 billion to $3.93 billion, but any lead is good news.
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There are two wide releases coming out this week, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched. However, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will likely destroy them at the box office. The real question is whether or not the top three films this year will out-earn the three films from this weekend last year. At the beginning of the month, I thought that would happen, but now I’m not so sure. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 missed expectations last weekend and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched haven’t seen their buzz grow like most new releases do. I don’t think 2017 will get crushed like it did last weekend, but I also don’t think it will end its mini-losing streak either.
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King Arthur: Legend of the Sword will open in 3,702 theaters this weekend, according to Warner Bros.’ Thursday figures. That’s a respectable figure, but nothing like the 4,347 theaters that will continue to play Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The battle at the box office likely won’t be close this weekend, even if Guardians drops precipitously from its $146.5 million debut.
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April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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By the time these releases go on sale, Black Friday and even Cyber Monday will be over. It's not a good time to release a DVD or Blu-ray just after a major sale has ended. People tend to not have a lot of money left to spend, so, unsurprisingly, there are no top-tier releases this week. However, there are lots of limited releases and specialty items that are worth checking out. (Including four releases where I'm still waiting for screeners.) There are a number of Pick of the Week contenders, but I'm going with Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXIV. And while you are buying that DVD, throw a few bucks to the Kickstarter. I would love to see a full 12-episode season.
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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This weekend is Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday and Cyber Monday. While the sales usually mean a massive increase in units sold, the sales also tend to scare away new releases. This is certainly the case here and this week's list is very short as a result. That's not to say there are no releases worth picking up. In fact, there are several Pick of the Week contenders, led by Shaun the Sheep on Buy from Amazon: Blu-ray Combo Pack. Meanwhile, for the second week in a row, we have a Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release, Guidance on DVD.
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Perhaps we’re seeing the first signs of multiplex fatigue? In the midst of a buoyant Summer at the movies, Ant-Man will debut with around $58 million, according to Sunday estimates, about 10% below expectations, and well short of the $94 million earned by Guardians of the Galaxy this time last year. It’s a very good opening, to be sure, but the second slightly disappointing debut from the Marvel Cinematic Universe this year, after The Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $191 million opening weekend back in May. We’re talking disappointment of the level of seeing Babe Ruth only hit one home run in a game here, so we need to put things in perspective. It’s the twelfth straight $50 million-plus opening for the franchise in seven years—an unprecedented box office run.
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There could be an interesting race on top of the box office charts this weekend, as Ant-Man will be looking to unseat Minions. However, while I think Ant-Man will come out on top on Friday, I think Minions will repeat over the weekend. The other new release of the week is Trainwreck, which has seen its reviews fall from 100% positive to a mere 90% positive. The amazing reviews and the success of R-rated female-centric films lately suggests it has the potential to reach $100 million. Inside Out and Jurassic World will also both hit milestones, so it should be an exciting weekend. This weekend last year, none of the three wide releases were particularly strong, which left Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in first place for the second weekend in a row with $36.25 million. Both Minions and Ant-Man will top that. Trainwreck might top that as well. It should be a good weekend for 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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It is a slow week on the home market, because it is the Tuesday after Easter. Easter tends to be a busy weekend for DVDs and Blu-rays, mostly family-friendly films. It is also post-Christmas on the home market. The final big releases from the holiday season have mostly come out and there are only a few limited release stragglers to deal with, but for the most part we are entering the summer dead zone on the home market. That doesn't mean there are no releases worth picking up. In fact, there are a few contenders for Pick of the Week, led by A Most Violent Year (Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack). Meanwhile, we have a Puck of the Week, The Book of Negroes on DVD, for the best Canadian release of the week.
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It is a very busy week on the home market with four wide releases, five if you count Spring Breakers, which expanded semi-wide during its second weekend of release. None of these films were big hits at the box office. In fact, the five of them combined made $122 million. Additionally, only one of them earned good reviews. Fortunately, not only did Spring Breakers earn good reviews, its DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are loaded, enough to be a contender for Pick of the Week. The other main contender is The Legend of Korra - Book One: Air. Unfortunately, I'm still waiting for the screener for both of those releases, and I hate handing out the Pick of the Week when the screener is on its way. Because of that, I'm going with a late review, Wilfred: Season Two on DVD or Blu-ray.
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Two stand-up comedy concert DVDs in one month. This one features Amy Schumer in her first hour-long TV special. With a name like Mostly Sex Stuff, you expect a raunchy set. Does it deliver? And does it deliver laughs as well as raunchiness?
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