This graph shows George Clooney’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
As the lone wide release to enter theaters last week, Wonka dominated both the domestic and international box office, scoring a solid $39 million from North American showings, while adding just over $54 million to its previous overseas total of $59 million. The Willy Wonka origin story starring Timothée Chalamet will begin its sophomore frame by adding 10 locations this week, making the musical the widest film in the land with availability in 4,213 cinemas. Wonka will face far stiffer competition however this week at the box office as a bevy of new films make their way into theaters in time for the Christmas holiday.
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After spending its first two weeks in the shadow of Black Adam at both the box office and as the widest release, Ticket to Paradise is adding 374 locations to kick off its third week, clocking in with 4,066 theaters to be exact, while also becoming the only film showing in over 4,000 cinemas this weekend, with Black Adam narrowly falling under that mark with 3,985. The romantic comedy starring Julia Roberts and George Clooney has so far amassed $128 million in worldwide earnings, including $38 million from North American patrons.
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Black Adam should hit $67 million over its opening weekend, and Ticket to Paradise will post around $16.3 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Both films are over-performing compared to our model’s prediction going into the weekend. Even though neither is breaking records, their relative strength is some much-needed good news for the industry, particularly considering the weakness of some other top 10 films.
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We are slowly pulling out of the doldrums at the box office, but (to mix metaphors) there’s still a long climb ahead. Black Adam is poised to post the biggest opening weekend since Thor: Love and Thunder debuted with $144 million over the weekend of July 8, but it won’t come anywhere near that figure. In fact, based on what we’re seeing so far, it won’t manage half of Thor’s opening number, with $60 million looking like the benchmark for the movie based on the current market conditions and its $7.6 million in previews on Thursday. Ticket to Paradise will likewise have the biggest opening for a romantic comedy in a long while, without entirely setting the world on fire.
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As has been the case with many films during the pandemic era, this week’s widest release was originally scheduled to hit theaters last year. Debuting in 4,402 locations, Black Adam positions itself comfortably between Minions: The Rise of Gru (4,391 theaters), and The Dark Knight Rises (4,406 theaters) as the 21st-widest release in history and the fifth widest film to debut this year. Meanwhile, finally making its arrival to North American cinemas, is the George Clooney and Julia Roberts romantic comedy, Ticket to Paradise. The Ol Parker-directed film will show in a respectable 3,543 locations.
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Exes David and Georgia find themselves on a shared mission to stop their lovestruck daughter from making the same mistake they once made after they learn that she is planning to marry a man she just met.
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There are three wide releases coming out this week, although only Jigsaw is expected to make any real impact at the box office. The other two, Suburbicon and Thank You for Your Service, are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and neither of them are expected to do well at the box office. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has an actual shot at repeating in first place, mostly because of the weak competition. This is terrible news for the overall box office, as it means we are going to have a hard time matching last year’s box office, even though last year there was only one wide release, Inferno.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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There's not much mystery over what movie will come out on top of the box office this weekend. Captain America: Civil War will repeat as champion, as neither Money Monster nor The Darkness are expected to be box office hits. In fact, both of them combined will earn less in total than Civil War will make over the weekend. Unfortunately, this weekend last year had a one-two punch with Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Civil War will beat those two individually, but 2015's depth is going to be really hard to top. Fortunately, 2016 has such a lead so far that it can weather this storm.
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April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April is over and there was good news and bad news. Good news: Furious 7 crushed the competition, and broke records along the way. Bad news: Furious 7 crushed the competition and no other April release will earn as much in total as Furious 7 earned during its opening day. Fortunately, Furious 7 was so strong that it carried April of 2015 to a draw when compared to April of 2014. May has a lot of similarities to April. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is expected to break records during its opening weekend and even the low end has it earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Unfortunately, no other film is going to come close to that figure. There are five other films with a potential to reach $100 million at the box office. The keyword there is "potential". There's a chance less than half of those five films will get to that milestone. And like last April, last May had much better depth with five films that reached $100 million, including four that surpassed $200 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than the combined totals of Maleficent, last month's winner, and X-Men: Days of Future Past, which placed second for the month. I am a little concerned about the lack of depth this month and this could cause May to lose in the month-over-month comparison in the end.
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It's that time of year, the weakest time of year on the home market. This week there are four first-run releases, but only one of them earned overall positive reviews and only one of them did well at the box office. Fortunately, it was the same film, About Last Night. If you are a fan of romantic comedies, then the DVD or Blu-ray is worth picking up, but it is not Pick of the Week material. For Pick of the Week, I went with Nosferatu the Vampyre on Blu-ray.
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After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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Success at the box office is no guarantee of awards, but it certainly doesn't do any harm. And by that metric, Gravity's chances of picking up an Oscar or three is taking a considerable turn for the better this weekend as the sci-fi thriller heads towards a celestial $55.6 million debut, according to Warner Bros.'s Sunday projection. That will comfortably set a record for the biggest weekend in October, overtaking Paranormal Activity 3's $52.6 million back in 2011. With Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave opening in the next two weeks, awards season is getting interesting.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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