Weekend predictions: Nobody 2 heading for second or third place as Weapons gets tested on second weekend

August 15, 2025

Nobody 2

Nobody 2 should make a decent start this weekend, with an opening close to double that of the first Nobody film back in pandemic-ravaged March 2021. Weapons won’t be significantly challenged for first place on the box office chart, but this weekend will be an important pointer towards its long-term performance.

Here’s the baseline analysis of Nobody 2…

This is a challenging movie to model, since previous entries in a franchise are the best predictor of performance, and Nobody came out when the market was spectacularly weak, and many theaters still weren’t open. We now have the strongest theatrical market since the pandemic, according to the model. So leads to a very high prediction for the opening, and an even more inflated predicted total for the film, because anything released in theaters back in March 2021 would have little competition for weeks at a time.

Our audience adjustment is pretty severe for this film, simply because we’ve not seen anything like the interest in the film that our baseline prediction would expect. That brings the overall baseline prediction down to a reasonable $14.8 million (the predicted total is inflated by the pandemic-era comparison, and is therefore very high).

Preview numbers are decent, and support an opening in the $10 million–$15 million range…

There’s a high degree of variation in performance for R-rated action movies and thrillers based on their preview numbers. That leaves quite a bit of uncertainty in how Nobody 2 will perform overall. I’d be surprised if it failed to hit $10 million, but that’s not outside the bounds of possibility. Anything over $15 million would also be surprising, but still achievable. The model ends with a number towards the low end of that range, but good reviews could still take the film higher.

Here’s what the model thinks the “top 10” will look like.

There are an unusual number of movies that could end up in the top 10 this weekend, but for which we don’t have a prediction. The Indian film Coolie earned a thumping $4 million yesterday, to place 2nd on the daily chart, but we might not get an official figure on that film for the weekend, and Indian films tend to hit big mostly in their first day or two. Likewise War 2 earned over $1 million on Thursday, and will probably fade from here.

GKIDS’ Shin Godzilla made $850,000 on Thursday, and will probably play well through the weekend, as it’s in 1,290 theaters. I expect it will end up in the lower reaches of the top 10.

Meanwhile, Iconic Releasing has two major releases this weekend: Jimmy & Stiggs, and the de Plessis vs. Chimaev UFC fight.

As if that wasn’t enough, Americana opens today, supposedly in wide release. Lionsgate haven’t announced a theater count for the film, and it seems to be playing a relatively small number of shows in the theaters we’ve surveyed. So it probably won’t have a big weekend, but could still surprise.

In the same vein, A24 didn’t report a theater count for Highest 2 Lowest, which seems to be playing a little wider than Americana. Perhaps the fact it’s an Apple Original will mean A24 doesn’t report numbers at all.

It’s conceivable that the final top 10 will include four or five films that aren’t listed in the table above. As usual, we’ll report everything that comes to us over the weekend.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shin Godjira, Americana, Highest 2 Lowest, Weapons, Nobody 2, Eli Roth Presents: Jimmy and Stiggs, War 2, UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev, Coolie