Weekend predictions: It Ends with Us in with a chance of surprise weekend win

August 9, 2024

It Ends with Us posted an impressive $7 million from preview screenings on Thursday, the best preview performance for a romantic drama since Fifty Shades of Grey back in 2015. Even if it loses momentum as the weekend progresses, it will have an excellent weekend. There’s even an outside possibility it could topple Deadpool & Wolverine from the top of the box office charts.

Here are our predictions for this weekend…

There’s no question It Ends with Us will beat our model’s baseline prediction of $23 million. The fact that it’s outperforming that number by so much makes it hard to predict where it will end up. At the low end, a Thursday-to-weekend multiplier of 6 would give it $42 million. The model is settling on a 7 multiplier, and $49 million, but 8 or more isn’t out of the question. A weekend over $50 million is certainly on the cards, and $60 million is a high-end possibility.

Borderlands is, sadly, looking like a dud…

The preview numbers aren’t a total disaster, but they come pretty close. The film will probably top $10 million this weekend, but even that relatively modest target isn’t guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Neon is trying to follow the smash-hit success of Longlegs with another high-brow horror offering in Cuckoo.

Longlegs-like numbers don’t appear to be on the cards, but hitting $4 million is a very respectable performance for an indie horror film.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

The model thinks Deadpool is the heavy favorite going into the weekend, but there are good reasons to believe the race will be closer than the model expects. First, as mentioned above, It Ends with Us has a good shot of making it at least close to $60 million. Second, the model’s predicted hold for Deadpool (down only 22%) would be a great result. Overall, my money is still on Deadpool winning the weekend, but it’s not a sure bet.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Deadpool & Wolverine, Borderlands, Cuckoo, Longlegs, It Ends With Us