Weekend predictions: Ghostbusters looking to scare up $40 million on debut

March 22, 2024

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire will top the box office chart this weekend fairly comfortably, knocking Kung Fu Panda 4 into second or third place, depending on how it holds on compared to Dune: Part Two. After a long dry spell, this could be the first weekend since August 4 last year to have three films earn over $20 million.

Here’s what our model expected for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire going into the weekend:

The number the model uses for Ghostbusters: Afterlife is adjusted for the strength of the market when it came out in November 2021. It actually made $44 million on debut, and that’s a good target for the new film. The model’s assessment of the current strength of the market bumps up the prediction quite a bit, with $54 million expected before we got preview numbers.

Its preview number is right in line with the preview total for its predecessor:

The problem with earning the same amount from previews is that sequels tend to have a lower multiplier from their previews to the opening weekend. That causes the model to end up with a predicted $40.8 million based solely on previews, and just under $38 million in the final assessment.

Personally, I think hitting $40 million is still a good bet, but that will require decent legs through the weekend.

Immaculate is technically another horror movie, but one aimed at fans who enjoy R-rated fair.

We don’t have any preview numbers for this movie, but it seems likely to come in at somewhere between $4 million and $5 million.

Finally, Luca rounds out Disney’s (re)-release of animated films:

The relatively low numbers for the two releases so far says a lot about how much of Disney’s target audience is subscribing to Disney+. Drawing those families back into theaters is a major challenge for the studio (and the industry as a whole).

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Frozen Empire will give the market a boost this weekend, but it’ll need to top $40 million if we’re going to have a $100-million weekend overall. The three big releases in March so far have helped pick up the pace after a very sluggish start to the year, but we’re still struggling to pack movie theaters every weekend.

Also worth looking out for is Late Night with the Devil, which is debuting in 1,034 theaters through IFC Films. Our model doesn’t think it’ll hit the top 10, but the performance of semi-wide movies like this is hard to predict.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Luca, Immaculate, Dune: Part Two, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Kung Fu Panda 4, Late Night with the Devil