Weekend Predictions: Will Crazy have a Rich Opening, or will Meg Swallow the New Releases?
August 16, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians leads a group of three films, both in terms of buzz and in terms of reviews. It also opened with $5.01 million on Wednesday, so its already looking like a box office success. On the other hand, Mile 22 has the worst reviews of the week and its buzz is only mediocre. That said, its buzz is still louder than Alpha’s buzz is. On the other hand, Alpha’s reviews are good enough that if it doesn’t struggle too much during its opening weekend, then its word-of-mouth should help its legs. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $21.38 million. That’s probably more than any film opening this weekend will make. On the other hand, the only other film to earn more than $10 million last year was Annabelle: Creation, while we should have four films do the same this year. The depth should help 2018 earn an easy win.
The Meg should remain in top spot over the weekend. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, while it has more or less direct competition opening this weekend. However, it opened with $45.40 million, so it could fall a long way and still wind up in first place. It could fall just over 60% and still earn $18 million this weekend, which might still be enough for first place. I think it will avoid that fate and come close to $20 million, earning first place in the process.
Crazy Rich Asians is the first major Hollywood-made film to have an all Asian main cast to come out in decades. The Joy Luck Club was the previous major example of this and it came out in 1993. This film is earning a lot of buzz as a result of that, while its reviews are over 90% positive and it earned an A from CinemaScore. It also opened on Wednesday earning $5.01 million, which could be enough to top the chart over the weekend. It will be close. Wednesday openings are rare enough that it is hard to judge what this $5 million debut means. Granted, Dog Days was a Wednesday debut just last week, but it also opened out side the top ten, so that’s not a fair comparison. The First Purge opened in third place, but it has a different target audience. A Bad Mom’s Christmas opened in first place, but it opened in November. My gut feeling has it earning $25 million, $17 million of which will come out the weekend.
Mile 22 should also compete for first place and could go as high as $20 million this weekend. Or it could fail to reach $15 million. The film seems like a bog-standard action film, so there’s no real hook to get moviegoers excited. Furthermore, its reviews are bad, even compared to the average for this time of year. I think it will finish on the lower end of the scale, with $16 million over the weekend.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout will spend one more weekend in the top five earning between $11 million and $12 million over the weekend. It remains on pace for $200 million, but it will likely drop out of the top five before it gets there.
Christopher Robin should round out the top five with about $8 million. It is on pace to match its $75 million production budget by the end of the month, but unless it is a bigger hit internationally, it won’t break even any time soon.
The final wide release of the week is Alpha, which is the story of how dogs became man’s best friend. The reviews are very good, but the buzz is so quiet that I’m afraid it will bomb hard enough that word-of-mouth won’t matter. It could open below the Mendoza Line with barely more than $5 million. Even high end expectations have it struggling to reach the top five with $8 million. I think it will avoid the Mendoza Line, but it will come close with $6 million.
- Crazy Rich Asians Comparisons
- Mile 22 Comparisons
- Alpha Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Christopher Robin, Mile 22, Alpha, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, The First Purge, Crazy Rich Asians, Dog Days