Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases have a Friendly Reception?
August 27, 2015
It's the last weekend of August and there are three films being dumped into theaters this week. None are expected to earn even $10 million, but there might be a bit of a race to see which of these movies will be the best of the bad group. No Escape already opened on Wednesday, but it didn't have a great start, despite playing in just over 3,000 theaters. We Are Your Friends opens on Friday in about 2,300 theaters, but it has a shot at second place. The final wide release is War Room, which is debuting in just over 1,000 theaters. However, it is a faith-based film, so it could be a surprise hit earning close to $10 million, or it might miss the Mendoza Line. Unless one or more of these films completely blows away analysts, Straight Outta Compton will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases and a limited release that nearly made the top ten. That's very similar to what it is this weekend. I think it will be relatively close, but 2015 will likely fall just shy of 2014 in the year-over-year comparison.
Straight Outta Compton should remain in first place for the third weekend in a row with between $14 million and $15 million. This will push its running tally to $135 million and put it about a week away from the $150 million milestone.
We Are Your Friends is earning the best reviews of the week, but its Tomatometer Score is still just 46%. Granted, this is better than most films released this time of year earn, but not high enough to really sell to audiences. Also, none of the stars have a huge amount of drawing power, so it is unlikely to become a real hit. On the other hand, it still feels like the strongest of the three new releases. I'm going with second place and just over $8 million.
No Escape earned second place on Wednesday with just $1.18 million in over 3,000 theaters for a per theater average of just under $400. There is a chance the film did this poorly because not enough people knew it was opening on Wednesday; however, that's betting on a long-shot. It is more likely not enough people cared it was in theaters to see it. The buzz is weak, as are its reviews, so I don't think it is going to bounce back much over the weekend. Look for third place with just under $8 million, but there is a chance it will bomb, missing the Mendoza Line with just under $6 million.
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation will be pushed into fourth place with just over $7 million over the weekend, giving it close to $170 million after a month of release. The lack of strong direct competition has lead to impressive legs, but with the holidays coming to a close soon, it will likely fade before it reaches $200 million. It likely won't even come close enough that the studio will give it a push to get over the top.
The Man From U.N.C.L.E. will round out the top five mostly by default. Look for $4 million to $5 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $34 million. That's not bad for this time of year, but also it is not worth celebrating.
The final new release with a shot at the top five is War Room. This is a faith-based film from the same writer / director team that made Courageous, which earned more than $30 million at the box office. There are still not enough reviews to judge the film's quality, which is just one more wild-card to deal with. Furthermore, as I've stated in the past, faith-based films tend to be very unpredictable. There are some who think this film will earn second place with $9 million. There are other who think it will miss the Mendoza Line with just $2 million. I think the lower end is more likely, so I'm going with just under $4 million.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation, The Man From U.N.C.L.E., No Escape, Straight Outta Compton, We Are Your Friends, War Room