May 16th, 2012
We are in the slowest time of year on the home market, and it is really showing on the Blu-ray sales chart. There were only three new releases to place on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, and only one of them earned a respectable opening week Blu-ray share. Haywire opened in first place with 185,000 units / $3.69 million giving it a Blu-ray share of 49%. That's a solid percentage for a film that struggled to find an audience in theaters.
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May 15th, 2012
New releases dominated the top of the DVD sales chart this week. This includes two films that could make a claim for first place: Joyful Noise and New Year's Eve. Joyful Noise led the way in terms of units at 399,000 units to 390,000 units, but New Year's Eve led the way in terms of raw dollars at $7.02 million to $6.38 million. Given their respective production budgets, this is a good start on the home market.
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May 1st, 2012
It's yet another very slow week on the home market. In fact, all of May is very slow on the home market, although this is not surprising for this time of year. I'm not even going to attempt to pad out the list this week. Is there anything in contention for Pick of the Week? Fortunately, the answer to that is yes. Unfortunately, the screener is late. Normally I really don't like awarding Pick of the Week to a film when the screener is late, but in this case, Haywire is head and shoulders above the rest, so unless the Blu-ray has less than zero special features, it's the best out there.
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January 1st, 2012
Mission: Impossible will enjoy another weekend at the top of the chart, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, and 2011 will end on a small uptick from 2010, but a lackluster Holiday Season overall will cap a year where the total box office will fall around 3% and ticket sales will be down 4%, making the year as a whole the worst for ticket sales since 1995 (full historical analysis here).
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December 19th, 2011
Well, serves me right for being optimistic. The box office was again filled with disappointments and both wide releases missed expectations, which is bad. They missed expectations by a combined $30 million, which is a disaster. I was going to say, "At least it wasn't as bad as last week!", but that's damning it with faint praise. The overall box office did grow by 57% to $118 million; however, since last weekend was the worse weekend in a few years, this not a reason to celebrate. Compared to last year, the drop-off was 12%. With two weeks left in the year, 2011 is behind 2010's pace by 4% at $9.71 billion to $10.12 billion with no hope of catching up. At this point, the only thing to do is looking forward to 2012 and hope the slump we are in now doesn't extend past the new year.
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December 16th, 2011
The box office has given us disappointment after disappointment for a long time. It is getting to the point where no matter how strong a film looks on paper, I expect it to struggle at the box office. This week, we have three or four major releases, depending on how you define things. Both Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows are opening in roughly 3,700 theaters, while Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol is opening in 400 theaters and Young Adult is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters. All four films should place within the top five. They should also do well when compared to last year's batch of new releases / expansions. The best new release from this week last year was Tron: Legacy, which made $44 million. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows should top that with ease, and the combined strength of the rest should help 2011 earn a solid win. Then again, I've said that before recently and ended up being disappointed the following Monday.
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December 15th, 2011
The winners of our Perry Christmas contest were determined and they are...
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December 15th, 2011
For the first time in four weeks, we had a new number one film on the international chart, as Puss In Boots continued its climb reaching top spot. It expanded into 16 additional markets, including a handful of major ones. This propelled it into first place with $47.06 million on 6,749 screens in 40 markets for a total of $143.72 million, which is just over what it has made domestically. The film's biggest debuted was Germany, where it earned top spot with $6.88 million on 680 screens, including previews. It was even more impressive in Brazil with $5.56 million on 738 screens, also including previews. Brazil is more of an emerging market than a major market, so the fact that it generated more revenue than its openings in either Australia ($4.03 million on 507 screens, including previews) or in the U.K. ($3.07 million on 510) is quite stunning. With debuts in Italy, Japan, and other markets ahead of it, not to mention the Christmas holiday, it could double what it currently has internationally, which would lift its worldwide total over $400 million.
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December 13th, 2011
After an extended slump with only a few bright spots over the past couple months, expectations for this weekend were lowered. Unfortunately, the new releases managed to fail to live up to lowered expectations and we had the worst weekend of the year. That can't be right. It's the worst weekend in three years. The overall box office was down 7% from last weekend to just $75 million, while it was down 18% when compared with last year. With only a few weeks left in the year, 2011 is down by 4% to 2010 at $9.57 billion to $9.95 billion. At this point, 2011 has virtually no chance of catching up to 2010. In fact, the box office is so weak, I think it is wise to reduce all predictions by at least 10%. ... Maybe 20%.
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December 11th, 2011
A dismal weekend is predicted all round this weekend, and the total box office is set to record its poorest score in three years, and its worst December weekend in over a decade. With Breaking Dawn, Part 1 continuing its rapid decline, and no hits coming out since, the top of the chart has a decidedly anemic look to it. New Year's Eve will be top with around $13.7 million, a number that is miles behind last year's $56.3 million debut for Valentine's Day. The Sitter will come second with $10 million, which is less of an embarrassment, given its edgier nature, but still well below par.
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December 8th, 2011
We could be in for a bad weekend. Then again, most weekends this year have been bad. Neither New Year's Eve nor The Sitter are winning over many critics, while their box office potential might be even lower than previously expected. The only good news is that this time last year wasn't a great weekend at the box office either and, if one new release can be a pleasant surprise, there's still a chance 2011 can pull out a win. However, there are not many reasons to feel optimistic at this point. On the one hand, there is a chance the extended box office slump is just the new norm and the two back-to-back years of $10 billion were a fluke. On the other hand, maybe there is a pent up demand and as soon as a the big releases come out next week, we will see an explosion at the box office. We will know more after next week.
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December 2nd, 2011
There are two wide releases next week: New Year's Eve and The Sitter. And while I think the latter will earn better reviews than the former, box office numbers are what count for our weekly box office prediction contest and therefore the former is the target film in this week's contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for New Year's Eve .
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of A Madea Christmas: The Play on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Meet the Browns: Season 2 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 1st, 2011
Well... game over. At the beginning of November, 2011's total box office was $340 million behind 2010's pace. We needed that gap to be closed significantly by the end of the month, but it actually grew wider. So now that there's virtually no chance that 2011 will avoid a year-over-year decline at the box office, not unless there's a surprise Avatar coming out this month. But is there at least some hope for the next four weeks? Last December six films reach $100 million, including one that opened in limited release and expanded wide, but none reached $200 million. This year, four are practically sure bets at $100 million, including one or two that could reach $200 million. Plus, there are four others that should make between $75 million and $100 million. I doubt all of them will reach the century mark, but if one did, it wouldn't be a shock. Then there's a couple of limited releases that should expand wide and, maybe, if one of them becomes the big play during Awards Season, it could reach $100 million as well. Even if every film beat expectations, 2011 won't come out ahead. But maybe if enough do, we can at least end the year on a high note. Unfortunately it has come down to that. Instead of talking about the box office record being broken, we are hoping 2011 doesn't end on yet another sour note.
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